Facing Ratko Mladic

The West, in its efforts to reach a comprehensive peace in Bosnia Herzegovina, might never have thought that it would face a Serbian Saddam Hussein. The man, Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb Army commander, must appear to NATO and the United Nations like someone whose senses have taken leave. As of last night, Mladic had yet to respond to NATO's ultimatum to lift the siege on Sarajevo or face renewed air strikes by the world's most powerful military alliance.

In the words of the NATO commander, Admiral Leighton Smith, Mladic would face attacks even stronger than last week's if he failed to pull his heavy guns from Sarajevo and break the 40- month siege. The United States ambassador to Bosnia, Robert Hunter, added: "If I were Mladic, I would not sleep well tonight ... We are getting stoked up, ready to go again."

The fact that Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic has had hardly any say in the crisis since last month shows that the general is now the only decision maker in Pale, the "capital city" of the so-called Bosnian Serb republic. Both rebels recently had a show-down, though Karadzic failed to oust Mladic because the latter still enjoys great support among the Serb generals.

The West's first encounter with Mladic revealed that making him return to his senses would not be an easy task. Observers said that it was Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic who wrote the scenario of the Serbs' 1992 rebellion against the Bosnian government, while it was implemented by Karadzic and carried out by Mladic on the battlefield. Execution of the Bosnian Serb strategy included ethnic cleansing, torture, mass rape and taking UN officers hostage. And Mladic -- together with Karadzic -- has been indicted by the U.N. for crimes against humanity as well as on charges of genocide.

Later developments proved differently as Milosevic found Karadzic to be an ineffective leader because he lad lost control of his generals. Milosevic is now trying to speak on behalf of Karadzic, though any agreement he concludes with the UN or NATO will not automatically be honored by the generals in Pale.

Now the West has shown Mladic the stick; there is no more carrot, because Mladic has eaten it and it is proving to be more than he can digest. Despite the threats, Mladic may still turn down the ultimatum to show the West that it is facing a more stubborn Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader who did not hesitate to sacrifice his own people to salvage his selfish pride.

NATO seems to believe that the next attack, if needed, will teach Mladic a final lesson by shattering his military backbone. But Mladic might not. The Serbs are seemingly indestructible and despite the bombings they will still enjoy military superiority in the region. He appears convinced that NATO will get fed up with its undeclared war against their republic and eventually give up.

Even if Mladic is willing to comply with the ultimatum, there is no guarantee that he won't violate any agreement forged with NATO. Having killed thousands of innocent people in their sleep, NATO must make sure that Mladic never sleeps again.

At this stage of the conflict the West must force the belligerent parties to the negotiation table. If they are not successful, they will leave Bosnia in disgrace and Mladic will have served both the UN and NATO another slap in the face. Time is running out.