Exports to continue rising trend: Survey

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The country's exports are expected to continue to grow this year despite the rising cost of raw materials and loans, a joint survey by consulting firm CastleAsia and logistics firm DHL revealed on Thursday.

With approximately 100 firms surveyed from May through August, more than half of which were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), 52 percent said they expected orders to increase at least up until the end of the year.

There have been fears that exports could gradually falter as a result of the soaring global prices of basic raw materials, including oil which surged to a new record of US$52 per barrel on Thursday.

It needs to be emphasized, however, that the optimism was largely expressed by SMEs.

"SMEs, as we know, are more resilient amid the fluctuation in prices and pose much less risks compared to large businesses. So I assume they have more optimism," said economist Peter Duncan, who was involved in the survey.

However, no statistics on the anticipated percentage increase, nor whether or not it could exceed the government's target were available.

The government has targeted non-oil and gas exports to reach about $46.37 billion for 2004, up 7 percent from last year.

Furthermore, the survey found that the cost of raw materials/supplies and currency rates were the two biggest factors that influence business moves.

The survey also discovered that 53.7 percent of the companies were confident that exports to Southeast Asia would make the biggest jump.

This, said Peter, was due to the improving economy in the region affected by China's excellent growth and strengthening regional currencies against the greenback.

Japan, the United States, and Singapore have been the traditional top export destinations for the country's non-oil and gas products.

Peter also affirmed that the findings from the survey were important as they could help indicate where the opportunities lay at least for the next few months.