Experts warn of more violence ahead of and during elections

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Experts have warned of more violence in the run-up and during the 2004 elections and have urged the National Police to go out of their way to ensure that the whole process proceeds smoothly and democratically.

Criminologist Mulyana W. Kusuma, deputy chairman of the General Elections Commission (KPU) Ramlan Surbakti, and National Police deputy chief for security affairs Insp. Gen. Adang Daradjatun said on Monday the anticipated unrest was likely due to new election methods applied for the 2004 elections.

Indonesia will hold its first ever direct presidential election in 2004.

"There will be many critical events in the run-up and during elections next year that could threaten the country's security," Mulyana said in a training course designed to prepare the police force for next year's elections.

According to Mulyana, September 2003 and the period between March and October 2004 are critical periods when social unrest is likely.

The Ministry of Justice and Human Rights is expected to announce the result of its party verification to determine which parties are eligible to contest the election. Parties that are not eligible are likely to mobilize their supporters to disrupt the election process.

The campaign period from March to October next year would also be critical with possible conflict among supporters of political parties.

According to Mulyana, the most critical period would the announcement of the results of the presidential election.

"Disappointed supporters could resort to destructive actions," he said.

Ramlan, meanwhile, said conflicts were likely to take place in regions following the announcement of party candidates elected as local councillors.

Meanwhile, Stanley Aji P. of the Institute for the Studies on Free Flow of Information (ISAI), Ery Seda of the Center for Electoral Reform (CETRO) and Topo Santoso of the University of Indonesia said that police would face difficulties to secure the election due to their failure to uphold justice in the 1999 election.

"People have a negative impression of police' performance and the only way to improve their reputation is to uphold the law," Ery said.

She was referring to the police's failure to take firm actions against certain security organizations belonging to political parties.

Stanley urged the police to disband all security organizations belonging to political parties. Almost all political parties here have their own security organizations.

Topo said police must also deal with violations during the election process as the National Election Monitoring Committee (Panwas) was only responsible for settling administrative disputes.

Only five of 236 criminal cases related to the 1999 election were brought to court. The rest were settled out of court.

Meanwhile, Adang said police personnel have prepared themselves for the upcoming election despite the severe lack of personnel and funds to oversee the election across the country.

"We need support from other members of the community to provide security in the election," he said, saying there are only some 400,000 police personnel available to oversee the election.