Experts expect much of the same after 2004 election
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The 2004 general election is unlikely to improve the quality of political life under the next government and legislature, with stronger public apathy toward the upcoming election also apparent, analysts said on Thursday.
Like before, the winners of the next election would retreat into a circle of politicians that keep out public participation, said political analyst Syamsuddin Haris of the National Institute of Sciences (LIPI).
"A lot of what the political elite then does will have little connection with public issues," he said in a seminar on the 2004 general election held by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
He said this gap was apparent today looking at legislators at the House of Representatives (DPR). Critics have long lamented that politicking was undermining the House's role as a lawmaking body.
They pointed to the political turmoil in the six months before former president Abdurrahman Wahid's ouster last year.
Syamsuddin also noted that the presence of House factions had no function other than to accommodate parties' political interests.
While the House often became a forum for power sharing deals, the number of laws legislators passed almost always falls below the target they themselves set. This year, it was less than half the target.
In one instance, the late deliberation of a law on bonds forced the government to pay Rp 3.1 trillion (about US$348 million) in maturing bonds this year, that could have otherwise been refinanced.
Syamsuddin warned of a similar experience from the future political elite produced by the 2004 general election.
Signs that this is to happen becomes apparent with parties still playing to ethnic and religious sentiment rather than solutions to woo voters.
Analysts predicted that parties would polarize between Islamic and national parties again, as those stood the best chances of attracting the masses.
Although parties must look appealing at the grassroots levels, relying on just that means neglecting political education and the quality of elected politicians.
"I don't expect a breakthrough in the 2004 general election," CSIS political analyst J. Kristiadi told participants but added that democracy was by nature a time consuming effort and a "long journey without an end."
The mushrooming of new political parties further showed that the public was disappointed with the present choice of parties and their performance, he said.
The number of political parties registered at the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights has reached at least 225.
But under the new political law and its tighter screening process, scores of parties will likely drop their bid to join the election.
"Over time, the number of parties will drop, because just as a publication cannot survive without its readers, a party cannot survive without its voters," said Sjamsuddin.
And as chances are slim of seeing many new parties in the 2004 election, he added, the number of would-be voters ignoring their voting rights would also likely increase.
"They're not that many and are found among the educated class and in urban areas," he explained.
Analyst Riswandha Imawan of Gadjah Mada University said that old parties would lose about 2 percent to 5 percent of their votes to newcomers in the 2004 election.
His prediction was based on a poll in Yogyakarta where he said 80 percent of the respondents expressed disappointment over the old parties.
"Gender issues will be important as parties now realize that about 51 percent of the voters will be women," Riswandha said on a separate occasion.