Experts expect much of the same after 2004 election

Experts expect much of the same after 2004 election

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The 2004 general election is unlikely to improve the quality of
political life under the next government and legislature, with
stronger public apathy toward the upcoming election also
apparent, analysts said on Thursday.

Like before, the winners of the next election would retreat
into a circle of politicians that keep out public participation,
said political analyst Syamsuddin Haris of the National Institute
of Sciences (LIPI).

"A lot of what the political elite then does will have little
connection with public issues," he said in a seminar on the 2004
general election held by the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS).

He said this gap was apparent today looking at legislators
at the House of Representatives (DPR). Critics have long lamented
that politicking was undermining the House's role as a lawmaking
body.

They pointed to the political turmoil in the six months before
former president Abdurrahman Wahid's ouster last year.

Syamsuddin also noted that the presence of House factions had
no function other than to accommodate parties' political
interests.

While the House often became a forum for power sharing deals,
the number of laws legislators passed almost always falls below
the target they themselves set. This year, it was less than half
the target.

In one instance, the late deliberation of a law on bonds
forced the government to pay Rp 3.1 trillion (about US$348
million) in maturing bonds this year, that could have otherwise
been refinanced.

Syamsuddin warned of a similar experience from the future
political elite produced by the 2004 general election.

Signs that this is to happen becomes apparent with parties
still playing to ethnic and religious sentiment rather than
solutions to woo voters.

Analysts predicted that parties would polarize between Islamic
and national parties again, as those stood the best chances of
attracting the masses.

Although parties must look appealing at the grassroots levels,
relying on just that means neglecting political education and the
quality of elected politicians.

"I don't expect a breakthrough in the 2004 general election,"
CSIS political analyst J. Kristiadi told participants but added
that democracy was by nature a time consuming effort and a "long
journey without an end."

The mushrooming of new political parties further showed that
the public was disappointed with the present choice of parties
and their performance, he said.

The number of political parties registered at the Ministry of
Justice and Human Rights has reached at least 225.

But under the new political law and its tighter screening
process, scores of parties will likely drop their bid to join the
election.

"Over time, the number of parties will drop, because just as a
publication cannot survive without its readers, a party cannot
survive without its voters," said Sjamsuddin.

And as chances are slim of seeing many new parties in the 2004
election, he added, the number of would-be voters ignoring their
voting rights would also likely increase.

"They're not that many and are found among the educated class
and in urban areas," he explained.

Analyst Riswandha Imawan of Gadjah Mada University said that
old parties would lose about 2 percent to 5 percent of their
votes to newcomers in the 2004 election.

His prediction was based on a poll in Yogyakarta where he said
80 percent of the respondents expressed disappointment over the
old parties.

"Gender issues will be important as parties now realize that
about 51 percent of the voters will be women," Riswandha said on
a separate occasion.