Experts divided over issue of presidential succession

Experts divided over issue of presidential succession

JAKARTA (JP): The debate on presidential succession resumed
over the weekend, with two leading experts taking opposite stands
on whether it was time to seek an alternative candidate for the
top job.

Economist and political analyst Dawam Rahardjo said it was not
an appropriate time for a changing of the guard, while government
critic Amien Rais insisted that it was still possible to elect an
alternative president for the 1998/2003 period.

The two were speaking at a seminar on future leadership held
by the Institute of Religious and Philosophical Studies. More
than 100 people packed the seminar room at Acacia Hotel, Central
Jakarta, with the event continuing until late at night. A lack of
seats forced dozens of enthusiastic attendants, mostly youths, to
sit on the floor.

Amien reiterated that Indonesia should groom a replacement for
incumbent President Soeharto who, according to the political
scientist from Yogyakarta, had indicated his wish to step down.

"President Soeharto has asked Golkar cadres to recheck their
support, right after he stated he refused to be turned into a
cult figure. Unfortunately, most of the Golkar people have failed
to grasp the messages," he said.

In an off-the-cuff speech during Golkar's anniversary
celebration on Oct. 19, Soeharto said that if he was not
reelected he would play the pundit role and advise Indonesia's
next leader. He was responding to Golkar's full support for his
renomination for a seventh five-year term.

The People's Consultative Assembly, dominated by Golkar and
its allies from the Armed Forces and Regional Representatives
faction, will convene next March to elect a president and vice
president.

Amien, former chairman of the board of experts at the
Association of Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI), said that as a great
leader President Soeharto had accomplished his mission.

"But a lot of yes-men are around him, and appear to be
steering him into big trouble."

Amien said Soeharto could learn from Singaporean Lee Kwan Yew
and China's paramount leader, the late Deng Xiao Ping, who both
stepped down without losing their grace.

Dawam opposed Amien's view, saying that nobody was capable of
succeeding Soeharto for at least the next five years. Besides,
the current economic turmoil and natural disasters would force
Soeharto to stay, according to Dawam, who is a member of the
Assembly.

"President Soeharto is a typical Javanese knight who will
refuse to avoid responsibility. He will not step down leaving a
troubled country."

Dawam said there were some potential leaders from military
circles and the civilian community but none would match the
country's first two presidents.

He speculated that Soeharto's suggestion, for the Assembly to
consider establishing a decree to provide the next president with
extra power, was aimed at helping the President prepare his
successor.

"President Soeharto may not serve a full term of office. If
that happens, he will make full use of constitutional power to
ensure a smooth succession."

Golkar, supported by the Armed Forces, has suggested that the
Assembly adopt the decree, saying that it would enable the next
president to rescue development programs if the country was ever
endangered. Deliberation of the proposal starts today.

The minority United Development Party backed the idea of
granting the next president extra power but it suggested the
change be regulated by the State Policy Guidelines. (amd)