Experts divided over issue of presidential succession
JAKARTA (JP): The debate on presidential succession resumed over the weekend, with two leading experts taking opposite stands on whether it was time to seek an alternative candidate for the top job.
Economist and political analyst Dawam Rahardjo said it was not an appropriate time for a changing of the guard, while government critic Amien Rais insisted that it was still possible to elect an alternative president for the 1998/2003 period.
The two were speaking at a seminar on future leadership held by the Institute of Religious and Philosophical Studies. More than 100 people packed the seminar room at Acacia Hotel, Central Jakarta, with the event continuing until late at night. A lack of seats forced dozens of enthusiastic attendants, mostly youths, to sit on the floor.
Amien reiterated that Indonesia should groom a replacement for incumbent President Soeharto who, according to the political scientist from Yogyakarta, had indicated his wish to step down.
"President Soeharto has asked Golkar cadres to recheck their support, right after he stated he refused to be turned into a cult figure. Unfortunately, most of the Golkar people have failed to grasp the messages," he said.
In an off-the-cuff speech during Golkar's anniversary celebration on Oct. 19, Soeharto said that if he was not reelected he would play the pundit role and advise Indonesia's next leader. He was responding to Golkar's full support for his renomination for a seventh five-year term.
The People's Consultative Assembly, dominated by Golkar and its allies from the Armed Forces and Regional Representatives faction, will convene next March to elect a president and vice president.
Amien, former chairman of the board of experts at the Association of Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI), said that as a great leader President Soeharto had accomplished his mission.
"But a lot of yes-men are around him, and appear to be steering him into big trouble."
Amien said Soeharto could learn from Singaporean Lee Kwan Yew and China's paramount leader, the late Deng Xiao Ping, who both stepped down without losing their grace.
Dawam opposed Amien's view, saying that nobody was capable of succeeding Soeharto for at least the next five years. Besides, the current economic turmoil and natural disasters would force Soeharto to stay, according to Dawam, who is a member of the Assembly.
"President Soeharto is a typical Javanese knight who will refuse to avoid responsibility. He will not step down leaving a troubled country."
Dawam said there were some potential leaders from military circles and the civilian community but none would match the country's first two presidents.
He speculated that Soeharto's suggestion, for the Assembly to consider establishing a decree to provide the next president with extra power, was aimed at helping the President prepare his successor.
"President Soeharto may not serve a full term of office. If that happens, he will make full use of constitutional power to ensure a smooth succession."
Golkar, supported by the Armed Forces, has suggested that the Assembly adopt the decree, saying that it would enable the next president to rescue development programs if the country was ever endangered. Deliberation of the proposal starts today.
The minority United Development Party backed the idea of granting the next president extra power but it suggested the change be regulated by the State Policy Guidelines. (amd)