Experts discuss Golkar's gain from PDI rift

JAKARTA (JP): Political scientists could not agree on whether the ruling Golkar would gain in the general elections now that the minority Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) is swamped in a leadership crisis.

One observer said Golkar would draw the votes from PDI, known as "the party of the youths". Another said there would not be any significant increase in Golkar's votes, while another said that the PDI conflict would only amount to a headache for the ruling group.

Arbi Sanit from the University of Indonesia's School of Social and Political Sciences predicted a large amount of extra votes for Golkar coming from disillusioned PDI supporters.

He suspected, however, that the conversion may be rigged as part of a bargain between Soerjadi, the PDI chairman recently elected at a government-backed rebel congress, and the government.

"(The government-backed) Golkar wants to get back the votes they lost to PDI in the 1992 election," he said. "Two-thirds of PDI voters are for Soerjadi, while the rest are for ousted PDI chief Megawati Soekarnoputri. I predict that Soerjadi will give away a number of his voters to Golkar."

"I think that Soerjadi will surrender five seats in the House of Representatives to Golkar in the 1997 election," said Arbi, one of the founders of the Independent Election Monitoring Committee.

Arbi's colleague, Burhan Magenda, blasted Arbi for his speculation. "Golkar won't gain anything from the trouble in PDI," said Burhan, who is also a member of Golkar.

However, Burhan admitted that Golkar hoped to target young voters to add to its traditional voters.

"Golkar is ready to contend with either Megawati or Soerjadi. Golkar will offer change in order to attract young voters, though not in a revolutionary style," he said.

Arbi, on the other hand, did not believe that young voters, who reportedly make up a third of PDI devotees, would be attracted to Golkar. "They wouldn't. They would think that Golkar is not radical enough for them," he said.

In the 1992 election, Golkar's seats in the House decreased while PDI's increased, although only by a slim margin. Analysts said that the additional seats for PDI came from the votes of the young and first-time voters.

Another observer, Ridwan Saidi, said that the crisis in PDI is causing difficulties for Golkar and will continue to do so, whether it is settled soon or not.

"If PDI resolved its crisis, it'll then become a tough contender for Golkar in the 1997 election," he said. "If the rift is protracted, Golkar will have to go to a general election, which does not give it a worthy sparring."

The general election will be joined by PDI, Golkar and the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP).

Ridwan, who is also a member of the independent poll watchdog, said that the rift has earned PDI a worldwide reputation.

Despite the split among members caused by the rift, there is at least one group within the party -- Megawati's supporters -- which has become even more solid.

"The conflict has dramatically consolidated (Megawati's loyalists)," he said. "Look at the masses that gather at PDI's headquarters on Jl. Diponegoro. Notice the media coverage. This is more effective than any campaign."

Arbi and Ridwan agreed, however, on how PPP would fare in the poll.

Arbi said that young PDI voters were not interested in, and so would not convert to, PPP. "They see PPP as conservative as Golkar. They think it is not radical enough. This is because PPP does not pay enough attention to the aspirations of the grassroots as PDI does," he said.

"PPP is a 'lost child' in the poll," Ridwan said. "Now people are only talking about the government (Golkar group) and PDI. PPP is not talked about anymore. I even think it will lose votes next year." (06)