Experts discuss Golkar's gain from PDI rift

Experts discuss Golkar's gain from PDI rift

JAKARTA (JP): Political scientists could not agree on whether
the ruling Golkar would gain in the general elections now that
the minority Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) is swamped in a
leadership crisis.

One observer said Golkar would draw the votes from PDI, known
as "the party of the youths". Another said there would not be any
significant increase in Golkar's votes, while another said that
the PDI conflict would only amount to a headache for the ruling
group.

Arbi Sanit from the University of Indonesia's School of Social
and Political Sciences predicted a large amount of extra votes
for Golkar coming from disillusioned PDI supporters.

He suspected, however, that the conversion may be rigged as
part of a bargain between Soerjadi, the PDI chairman recently
elected at a government-backed rebel congress, and the
government.

"(The government-backed) Golkar wants to get back the votes
they lost to PDI in the 1992 election," he said. "Two-thirds of
PDI voters are for Soerjadi, while the rest are for ousted PDI
chief Megawati Soekarnoputri. I predict that Soerjadi will give
away a number of his voters to Golkar."

"I think that Soerjadi will surrender five seats in the House
of Representatives to Golkar in the 1997 election," said Arbi,
one of the founders of the Independent Election Monitoring
Committee.

Arbi's colleague, Burhan Magenda, blasted Arbi for his
speculation. "Golkar won't gain anything from the trouble in
PDI," said Burhan, who is also a member of Golkar.

However, Burhan admitted that Golkar hoped to target young
voters to add to its traditional voters.

"Golkar is ready to contend with either Megawati or Soerjadi.
Golkar will offer change in order to attract young voters, though
not in a revolutionary style," he said.

Arbi, on the other hand, did not believe that young voters,
who reportedly make up a third of PDI devotees, would be
attracted to Golkar. "They wouldn't. They would think that Golkar
is not radical enough for them," he said.

In the 1992 election, Golkar's seats in the House decreased
while PDI's increased, although only by a slim margin. Analysts
said that the additional seats for PDI came from the votes of the
young and first-time voters.

Another observer, Ridwan Saidi, said that the crisis in PDI is
causing difficulties for Golkar and will continue to do so,
whether it is settled soon or not.

"If PDI resolved its crisis, it'll then become a tough
contender for Golkar in the 1997 election," he said. "If the rift
is protracted, Golkar will have to go to a general election,
which does not give it a worthy sparring."

The general election will be joined by PDI, Golkar and the
Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP).

Ridwan, who is also a member of the independent poll watchdog,
said that the rift has earned PDI a worldwide reputation.

Despite the split among members caused by the rift, there is
at least one group within the party -- Megawati's supporters --
which has become even more solid.

"The conflict has dramatically consolidated (Megawati's
loyalists)," he said. "Look at the masses that gather at PDI's
headquarters on Jl. Diponegoro. Notice the media coverage. This
is more effective than any campaign."

Arbi and Ridwan agreed, however, on how PPP would fare in the
poll.

Arbi said that young PDI voters were not interested in, and so
would not convert to, PPP. "They see PPP as conservative as
Golkar. They think it is not radical enough. This is because PPP
does not pay enough attention to the aspirations of the
grassroots as PDI does," he said.

"PPP is a 'lost child' in the poll," Ridwan said. "Now people
are only talking about the government (Golkar group) and PDI. PPP
is not talked about anymore. I even think it will lose votes next
year." (06)