Expert warns of possible storms and flooding in Central Java

Sri Wahyuni, The Jakarta Post, Yogyakarta

An environmental expert at Gadjah Mada University here has warned of possible flooding and landslides in Yogyakarta and Central Java, similar to the disaster that struck Flores island and other parts of East Nusa Tenggara province.

"Clouds above Central Java have the potential to cause torrential rains in the region. And any storm is expected to be accompanied by winds between the speeds of 10 kilometers and 15 kilometers per hour," the expert, Sudibyakto, said.

Sudibyakto, who is the head of the university's postgraduate environmental studies program, said the southern part of Central Java was especially at risk of flooding because if the tropical storm hits it is expected to kick up waves as high as three or four meters in the ocean.

"And both the torrential rains and any flooding could cause landslides because in some areas the land is quite unstable," he said.

Based on his observations, Sudibyakto predicted the storm would last for three to five days before dissipating or heading toward the northern coast of Australia. He said it was urgent that the government take action to prepare for the storms.

"The public needs requires an early warning and has to be kept on the alert, and this can only be done by continuously monitoring the storm's movement through the weather satellite," he said.

Sudibyakto also said the torrential rains in East Nusa Tenggara since March 31 had much to do with the presence of tropical storms south of the islands of Sumba, Sumbawa and Flores.

At least 52 people were killed and 28 others are still missing in the floods and landslides caused by the rain.

"The tropical storms occurred due to the emergence of a center of low air pressure over the region. As a result, all the clouds over Java island were drawn to the region, causing heavy rain which in turn caused major landslides and flooding in most parts of Flores and West Timor."

He said he was concerned by the lack of data and analysis of tropical storms in Indonesia, which makes it difficult to forecast weather changes and possible natural disasters across the archipelago with accuracy.

He said more analysis was needed in order to create an early warning system for storms.

He said torrential rains and weather changes could be predicted with more regularity if the country had a proper observatory center. He pointed to the example of the Philippines, which he said had succeeded in mapping storm frequencies in areas prone to storms.

"I think it is time for Indonesian climatologists to map tropical storm frequencies in certain areas of the country."