Expert says capital flood warning holds no water

Expert says capital flood warning holds no water

BOGOR (JP): Predictions that Jakarta could be hit by massive
flooding soon due to the effects of the La Nina weather
phenomenon are baseless, a lecturer at the Bogor Institute of
Agriculture said on Thursday.

Hidayat Pawitan, a lecturer at the institute's Geophysics and
Meteorology department, told The Jakarta Post that flooding
predicted to take place later this year would not be made worse
by La Nina.

"The effects of the La Nina phenomenon in the form of heavier
rains happen only during the dry season. During the rainy season,
the impacts of La Nina are usually offset by the domination of
the monsoon," he said.

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) recently warned
Jakartans that the La Nina weather phenomenon could intensify
flooding during the rainy season.

BMG predicted the level of flooding could be greater than that
in 1996, when Jakarta's 10 million inhabitants suffered from the
most widespread flooding in the city's history.

Hidayat reiterated that the country's weather was greatly
influenced by the monsoon, a periodic wind flowing from Asia to
Australia that causes Indonesia to have two major seasons: one
dry and the other rainy. The dry season usually takes place from
April to September, while the rainy season occurs from October to
March.

"The heaviest rainfalls due to the monsoon are frequently
recorded from December to February. That's why Jakarta is often
inundated during those months," he said.

"There is nothing special here. Massive flooding in those
months is ordinary. It's not because of La Nina.

Hidayat further explained that this year the La Nina
phenomenon had already started in June with the Southern
Oscillation Index, an indicator measuring both the El Nino and La
Nina phenomenons, reaching a figure of eight.

The index rose to 10 early last month, he said, adding that
areas could be hit by massive flooding if the index was between
10 and 20.

There is a possibility that the index may still be between 10
and 20 in October, he said. "But Java, including Jakarta, will
not be affected. It will only affect South Pacific countries,
including Australia. And if it affects Indonesia, it would only
hit areas near Timor island," he said.

Hidayat said he was more concerned about the effects of El
Nino, which usually causes droughts. If the phenomenon starts in
March, it could cause a drought, he said. But if it starts in
July, the dry season would not be affected at all.

Commenting on the most effective way to control flooding in
Jakarta, Hidayat cited a combined system of drainage flows and
dams.

"Such an integrated system could pump water out to other water
storage areas when a dam reaches its maximum capacity," he said.

This system, he said, was currently being used in Tokyo and
Osaka, Japan.

The two cities used to be frequently hit by massive flooding
before the systems were put in place, he said. (24/hhr)