Expert doubts elections will be held on schedule
Expert doubts elections will be held on schedule
YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political scientist Riswandha Imawan says the
general election, scheduled for June 1999, is likely to be
postponed due to the economic and political problems besetting
the country.
The lecturer at Gadjah Mada University's School of Social and
Political Sciences told a media conference here on Wednesday that
people's financial needs -- given that the three important events
of Christmas, New Year's and Idul Fitri came close together this
year -- would be aggravated by growing conflicts in the political
arena.
Speaking along with other faculty members at the university's
year-end evaluation, Riswandha cited "conflicts between
Minister/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung and Minister of Home
Affairs Syarwan Hamid over the question of civil servants'
involvement in politics".
He identified another conflict as occurring between Minister
of Cooperatives and Small Enterprises Adi Sasono and Coordinating
Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry Ginandjar
Kartasasmita.
He pointed out how Adi had been campaigning for economic
policies which would benefit small entrepreneurs. Some people
believe the policies would be detrimental to conglomerates.
Riswandha believes Ginandjar, on the other hand, still champions
policies that favor only conglomerates.
"It's now obvious that Adi has become an enemy of many big
businesses," Riswandha said.
"Under such a condition, isn't it possible that big clashes
could occur (during the general election)?" he asked.
Tension, on the other hand, could be abated by at least three
factors, the first of which was to what degree the government
holds a free and fair general election.
He spoke of parties bent on rigging the polls, citing how many
of the government's proposed rulings for the political bills were
altered before the documents were submitted to the House of
Representatives in September.
He did not mention any names.
The second factor that could have a bearing on whether full-
blown conflicts break out is how the government handles public
grievances over, among other things, the lack of action at
demands to lay charges against Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto
and former president Soeharto and track down escaped convict Eddy
Tansil.
The third was the "Cendana factor", Riswandha said, in
reference to Soeharto's residence on Jl. Cendana in Central
Jakarta.
He believed not all of the three fundamental forces needed for
democratization were under the control of reformists.
"The reformists only have political force, while the economic
and legal forces are still in the hands of the Soehartoists," he
said.
He recommended "a political recovery to prevent a social
revolution" and the establishment of "a political safety net" as
manifested in real reconciliation among elements in society,
including different religious groups.
Two economists also spoke at the media conference: Anggito
Abimanyu and Revrisond Baswir.
Revrisond concurred with Riswandha and said President B.J.
Habibie's administration suffered from a crisis of economic
policies because of a split in the Cabinet.
The conflicting stance of the economic ministers, he believed,
would adversely influence the drafting of the state budget and
the prospects of the 1999 economic situation as a whole.
The first group were technocrats without political vision,
namely those in the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and in
the office of the National Development Planning Board.
Standing opposite the first group were those within Habibie's
orbit, whom Revrisond called as "nationalist populists" in the
ministries of cooperatives and small enterprises, forestry,
agriculture, and industry and trade. (23/44)