Expert doubts elections will be held on schedule
YOGYAKARTA (JP): Political scientist Riswandha Imawan says the general election, scheduled for June 1999, is likely to be postponed due to the economic and political problems besetting the country.
The lecturer at Gadjah Mada University's School of Social and Political Sciences told a media conference here on Wednesday that people's financial needs -- given that the three important events of Christmas, New Year's and Idul Fitri came close together this year -- would be aggravated by growing conflicts in the political arena.
Speaking along with other faculty members at the university's year-end evaluation, Riswandha cited "conflicts between Minister/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung and Minister of Home Affairs Syarwan Hamid over the question of civil servants' involvement in politics".
He identified another conflict as occurring between Minister of Cooperatives and Small Enterprises Adi Sasono and Coordinating Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry Ginandjar Kartasasmita.
He pointed out how Adi had been campaigning for economic policies which would benefit small entrepreneurs. Some people believe the policies would be detrimental to conglomerates. Riswandha believes Ginandjar, on the other hand, still champions policies that favor only conglomerates.
"It's now obvious that Adi has become an enemy of many big businesses," Riswandha said.
"Under such a condition, isn't it possible that big clashes could occur (during the general election)?" he asked.
Tension, on the other hand, could be abated by at least three factors, the first of which was to what degree the government holds a free and fair general election.
He spoke of parties bent on rigging the polls, citing how many of the government's proposed rulings for the political bills were altered before the documents were submitted to the House of Representatives in September.
He did not mention any names.
The second factor that could have a bearing on whether full- blown conflicts break out is how the government handles public grievances over, among other things, the lack of action at demands to lay charges against Lt. Gen. (ret.) Prabowo Subianto and former president Soeharto and track down escaped convict Eddy Tansil.
The third was the "Cendana factor", Riswandha said, in reference to Soeharto's residence on Jl. Cendana in Central Jakarta.
He believed not all of the three fundamental forces needed for democratization were under the control of reformists.
"The reformists only have political force, while the economic and legal forces are still in the hands of the Soehartoists," he said.
He recommended "a political recovery to prevent a social revolution" and the establishment of "a political safety net" as manifested in real reconciliation among elements in society, including different religious groups.
Two economists also spoke at the media conference: Anggito Abimanyu and Revrisond Baswir.
Revrisond concurred with Riswandha and said President B.J. Habibie's administration suffered from a crisis of economic policies because of a split in the Cabinet.
The conflicting stance of the economic ministers, he believed, would adversely influence the drafting of the state budget and the prospects of the 1999 economic situation as a whole.
The first group were technocrats without political vision, namely those in the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and in the office of the National Development Planning Board.
Standing opposite the first group were those within Habibie's orbit, whom Revrisond called as "nationalist populists" in the ministries of cooperatives and small enterprises, forestry, agriculture, and industry and trade. (23/44)