Europe's gathering political storm

Ian Davidson, European Policy Center, Brussels, Project Syndicate

Jean-Marie Le Pen's breakthrough in the French presidential elections is a slap in the face for mainstream French political parties, as well as a stark warning of the drawbacks of the constitution of the Fifth French Republic. But the lessons of Le Pen's rise go beyond the specifics of French politics, because far-right parties have been on the march in many European countries of late, from Austria to Portugal, from Italy to Denmark.

The questions we must ask are, first, whether this upsurge of far-right, anti-immigrant, law-and-order parties is part of an evolving crisis in Europe's traditional model of parliamentary democracy; and second, whether it represents the precursor of a major crisis about the future of the European Union. I believe the answer to both questions to be yes.

On the surface, the crisis in France may seem short-lived. All mainstream parties are rallying round Jacques Chirac to keep out Monsieur Le Pen. In the second round of voting, Chirac will undoubtedly defeat Le Pen, possibly with a record majority.

But the figures from the first round tell a different story. Chirac got less than 20 percent of the vote; Chirac, Le Pen, and the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, got little more than 50 percent between them, and an unusually large number of voters stayed home. In short, France does not want any of these people to be President, and Chirac's large eventual victory will not correspond to any large degree of legitimacy.

Moreover, the presidential election will not be the last word, since it will be followed by parliamentary elections. If the socialists can pull themselves together behind a new leader, President Chirac, despite re-election, could once again face a left-wing majority in parliament.

What seems clear from Sunday's vote is that France's mainstream parties are enduring a crisis of legitimacy. Part of the problem is that most leading French politicians are tiresomely familiar and uninspiring. It is not just that Chirac is corrupt, or that Jospin is dull, but that they have been around for decades.

But the deeper problem is that, in contrast with the populist simplicities of extremists like Le Pen, France's mainstream parties lack clear policies. When a politician goes to his electorate, he needs to be able to say what he wants to do and why; and a party needs to have a program on which its members all more or less agree.

Communism's collapse undermined the credibility of traditional left-wing ideologies, and the policy problems of national political parties have been made more difficult by the tidal wave of globalization. In the French presidential campaign, everyone knew what Le Pen stood for; but neither Chirac nor Jospin had a clear program to offer, just vague, abstract generalities. Chirac did better, mainly because he was better at glad-handing voters.

The French socialist party can still, probably, rely on the loyalty of a substantial minority for atavistic or tribal reasons; but it does not propose to introduce socialism. On the contrary, everyone knows that Lionel Jospin's government pursued a slow, covert process of privatization and liberalization, because such a process is unavoidable in today's global economy.

The dilemma is similar in all European parliamentary democracies which evolved to express some version of the left- right choice and which are now gasping for lack of oxygen. In Britain, Tony Blair's government claims to be "New Labour". But for its first five years in power, its "Third Way" rhetoric failed to conceal that it was pursuing ultra-liberal center-right policies. It is only recently, with a promise to spend more on the National Health Service, that it has started to return to its social-democratic roots.

No doubt a key factor behind Le Pen's breakthrough is popular anxiety -- especially among the old, the unemployed and the unskilled -- about globalization and its pressures for change. These fears incite anger and xenophobia, even though everyone knows that globalization cannot be conquered by kicking out foreigners.

What is most dismaying about the French presidential campaign is how little either mainstream leader had to say about Europe. After all, the EU has embarked on a year-long exercise which will likely culminate, at next year's end, in a new constitutional treaty for Europe. Not long after that, the EU will take in ten or more new members from Eastern Europe.

The new constitution will take Europe in a more federal direction, which is essential if the Union is to function with 25 or 30 members and which implies serious adjustments in notions of national sovereignty. Enlargement, bringing in a large number of much poorer countries, will have a seismic effect on Union policies, implying losses of benefits in richer members. The next French president cannot control or prevent the forces of globalization; but he can have a major influence on the EU's development. So what did Chirac and Jospin say on the subject? Not a word. Why? Because they fear the crises that lie ahead.