Estrada's impeachment

Though it is by no means certain that moves to remove Philippine President Joseph Estrada from office will prove to be successful, the growing support which the opposition appears to be getting from the Philippine public portends that some difficult days lie ahead for the beleaguered chief executive.

If one is still not convinced despite the tumultuous scenes that took place in the House of Representatives when it took the Congress no more than five minutes to move to impeach Estrada with no vote or debate whatsoever, then certainly the public strikes staged by workers in Manila should persuade observers of this reality.

In the Makati financial district of Manila, many brokers and workers walked off the job on Tuesday in support of the general strike which the opposition had staged to press for the president's removal from office. Up to 70 percent of the public transportation system was reported to have come to a standstill in several parts of the capital and in surrounding towns and cities.

Estrada, who was impeached on charges of corruption, is now likely to face trial by the Senate on Dec. 1, with a verdict expected in the first week of February next year -- before the legislature goes into an extended recess pending campaigning for parliamentary elections due in May.

Estrada now faces the prospect of becoming the first-ever Philippine president to be removed from office. Whether he will manage to get himself out of his present predicament remains to be seen. However, if there is any substance at all in the charges that have been leveled at him, he will have a hard time proving his innocence.

Among the charges he will have to answer to are: involvement in an improper power plant deal, diverting US$10.5 million from a government public health care fund to some of his family's projects, accumulating unexplained wealth to support a number of mistresses and receiving more than $8 million worth in payoffs from illegal gambling and $2.6 million from tobacco taxes. Not to mention alleged improper behavior such as late-night drinking habits and trying to amend the constitution in his favor.

The question now is, will the president still be able to govern effectively. Even before this, Estrada was pictured in some media reports as a president who scorns regular Cabinet sessions and who is averse to reading newspapers and magazines, or even government reports.

Whether the flaws and excesses that critics have brought against him are true is of course a matter that must be proven in a court of justice. However, it is true, as one former aide put it, that personal flaws which would have been all right in an ordinary person can be devastating for the country if that person is president.

For Indonesia, these latest developments in the Philippines should be a matter of grave concern. There is at present enough instability in this region without order and stability breaking down in Manila.

Furthermore, all this serves as a painful reminder for Indonesians of conditions in their country. Some politicians here never seem to tire of pressing for President Abdurrahman Wahid's removal from office. At present, though, this country is in a worse state than the Philippines, both economically and politically. Indonesians should think twice, at the very least, before they make any attempt to turn such ambitions into reality. Neither this country nor the region needs more instability than already exists.