Erratic reshuffle
President Abdurrahman Wahid may have been exercising his constitutional prerogative in reshuffling the Cabinet on Friday, but he still owes the nation a logical explanation as to why he made those changes. Unfortunately, his explanation after the announcement fell short of expectation, and, with regards to the dismissal of Coordinating Minister of Political, Social and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, it raises more questions than it gives answers. For those who find it increasingly difficult to make any sense out of Abdurrahman's recent policies, bear in mind that we are dealing with a president whose middle name is erratic.
Susilo has been a key figure in Abdurrahman's Cabinet for much of the past year as the President faced growing pressure to step down. A retired three-star Army general and a highly capable and competent administrator, Susilo has always come across as a loyal and dependable, yet independent, figure in the Cabinet, earning him the respect of supporters as well as critics of the President. His presence lent credence to the administration at a time when the President's own credibility and popularity were rapidly waning over allegations of corruption and misrule.
As a former Army man, Susilo was also a key link between the President and the Indonesian Military (TNI), a role he played effectively, especially when relations between the head of state and his generals were not always smooth.
We mean no disrespect for his successor Agum Gumelar, but Susilo was also known for standing up to the President whenever the occasion merited it. Susilo, for example, used his position of influence effectively in counseling Abdurrahman against declaring a state of emergency on two occasions this past week.
Citing intelligence reports, Susilo last week publicly contradicted Abdurrahman's oft-repeated claim -- that six provinces would break away from the republic if the President was ousted from office.
Some might call what Susilo did acts of insubordination, but the job of a minister is not simply to carry out the President's orders, but also to advise him on the proper course of action and to correct him when he errs, even if it means putting the ministerial post on the line. In all likelihood, this is the real reason why Susilo lost his Cabinet post.
President Abdurrahman would be gravely mistaken if he thinks he can safely declare a state of emergency now that Susilo is out of the way. Both TNI and the National Police, the two forces that would have to implement the draconian measures under a state of emergency, have made it clear they will not support the President in such a move.
Susilo's opposition to the President's plan this past week had spared the leadership in the military and the police from having to disobey their supreme commander. Agum Gumelar, another former Army man who is the new chief security minister, should continue to block the plan, because, as we all know, the real reason the President wants to impose a state of emergency is to enable him to dissolve the House of Representatives and arrest his political rivals before they can move to impeach him.
Susilo's departure represents a tremendous loss to President Abdurrahman. The Cabinet increasingly looks more like a bunch of yes-men, depriving the President of the wisdom and the experience of able and competent figures like Susilo.
President Soeharto in his last Cabinet also surrounded himself with men and women not known for contradicting him. The consequence was disastrous for him personally and for the nation. If Soeharto's experience in 1998 is any indication, Susilo's departure could speed up the collapse of the Abdurrahman regime. At any rate, Friday's Cabinet reshuffle showed a President who has become more and more isolated, not only from the people, but also from people who were once his loyal and trusted aides.