Elite games hamper reform impetus

Peter Milne, Managing Editor Van Zorge Report on Indonesia, Jakarta

As the pressure builds on Golkar Chairman Akbar Tandjung, appeals can be heard for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to remain steadfast in her resistance to overtures from Golkar to allow the party off the hook. Some observers go so far as to suggest that Megawati appeal to the "people" to fight corruption and keep the country striving for reform. They point out that such a stance would make Megawati very popular with the rakyat kecil, the little people, as surely it would.

Never one to be quick to pick a fight, even if the fight is in the cause of fighting corruption, Megawati is likely to say as little as possible and do even less -- other than to allow the legal process to take its course. A hands-off style would be her expected approach to such a prickly issue. A special committee investigation into the Akbar case by the legislature (DPR) remains a possibility. But if the investigation remains with the attorney general's office then what appears to be a clear-cut case of corruption and electoral rule-breaking will probably become bogged down in legal technicalities.

What we are witnessing is simply elite politics at its highest level, as the various players position and reposition for the 2004 general election. The underlying trend is that nothing much of importance gets done. And this is fine with many people because doing as little as possible is the best recipe for avoiding instability over the next couple of years. The reform impetus has already slowed, relative stability (in terms of post- Soeharto Indonesia) has returned and, while the political pundits may not have noticed, the stock market has registered a significant post-New Year bounce.

The reality is that the Indonesian political system and those within the elite who have influence over it remain bound by New Order interests. Even the disqualification of Golkar from the next general election will have not the slightest impact on this situation, as we would probably only see the creation of a "Golkar Perjuangan" phoenix. Arguably, pushing hard for real reform at this stage will only create real instability, which could overflow onto the streets. Very few players, and certainly not Megawati, are prepared to take this risk.

If the government were really serious about reform, it would need to take drastic steps to eradicate an entire generation of politicians and bureaucrats with links to the New Order regime. Far more effective than banning Golkar, this could mean for example banning anyone from elected office who had served for more than five years in a position, either political or bureaucratic, under the Soeharto regime.

A powerful but apolitical and totally transparent selection committee would also have to be established to conduct "fit-and- proper" tests on all new senior appointments, such as director- generals and heads of state-owned enterprises, as a prelude to replacing all the incumbents. Only in this way would the government stand any chance of inducting new (and hopefully cleaner) blood into the political system and the upper echelons of the bureaucracy. Only then would a reformist drive have a real hope of making significant progress.

But let's be realistic: This sort of reformist drive is almost certainly not going to occur, especially under Megawati. Instead, as most people are beginning to realize, next to nothing will happen. There will be no dangerous struggle between the old and the new, and things in Indonesia will remain relatively stable, notwithstanding the political "white noise" that is constantly in our ears from political bickering. But all this is just elite politics, nothing more. Most Indonesians are just getting on with their lives as best they can. Is this so bad? It could be far worse.

It is hard to see any major triggers for serious unrest at the present time. The price rises just imposed by the government, after some initial hesitation, have failed to provoke more than token demonstrations. An Argentina-style currency collapse is a red herring, with the rupiah already significantly undervalued and free floating. The separatist conflicts in Aceh and Papua will grind on, without clear progress in any direction. One trigger could be some form of direct military involvement in Indonesia by U.S. forces as part of the war against international terrorism, but the likelihood of this is too small.

In the meantime no significant progress will be made by the government, and most of the elite will be increasingly preoccupied by positioning for the general election, not least Megawati. Life will carry on much as before for most Indonesians and the businesses they work for. And the economy will continue to grow, if only at a modest rate. One new business opportunity in this environment springs to mind: If cheap filters for the "white noise" of Indonesian politics could be effectively produced, they would probably find a market of over 200 million buyers.