Elections vital to stabilization in Iraq

Yelena Melkumyan, RIA Novosti, Moscow

Many Iraqis want the Jan. 30 elections to the National Assembly to succeed, as it is the only chance to start stabilization process in the country.

The elections will create legitimate bodies of power. The legitimacy of the provisional authorities in Iraq is only ensured by the support of the international community. They were established according to UN Security Council resolutions with the assistance of the leading world powers and Iraq's neighbors. But the authorities cannot be fully legitimate without elections.

If people do go to the polls, a considerable part of political forces in Iraq may recognize the results as legitimate and many Iraqis may support the bodies of power to be created after the elections. The Sunnite parties have decided to boycott the election, which is creating problems for the country and themselves, as they are depriving themselves of the opportunity to take part in the country's political life.

The boycott will have little effect on the results of the elections and the recognition of their legitimacy by the majority of Iraqis and the international community. The list of parties and candidates standing for elections is quite representative and the turnout should be high enough, despite the boycott and security problems, to make the elections valid.

Everybody agrees that the situation in Iraq is complicated, but the cancellation or postponement of voting for security reasons would mean a victory for the extremists and a violation of the timeframe stipulated in the UN Security Council resolutions.

This would perpetuate instability and create an illusion for the opponents of the new authorities that their actions can produce practical results. It would be better to hold the election in the stipulated timeframe.

The elections are crucial for Iraq's political and economic future. Only after they are held will the country regain full sovereignty and independence, when stability can be ensured not by the coalition forces but by the Iraqi army.

This will not happen overnight, but the elections will create conditions for this to take place. So, not only the external forces (the U.S. and other coalition members) but also a considerable part of Iraq's political forces and the majority of Iraqis are in favor of holding the election.

Everyone knows that after the elections political groups will wage a genuine battle to elaborate a common development program; this is inevitable. A period of transition in any country means fierce clashes between political forces, and there may be progress or procrastination, and backward movement.

Iraq is entering a new period in its history. It will be painful but the people must withstand all hardships. Only a democratic way, including the elections and the creation of the bodies of authority on the pluralist basis, will ensure positive results in Iraq.

Despite the numerous problems, most Iraqis support the new authorities and the social basis of resistance is not as broad as it seems. At least, it does not cover the whole of the country.

Apart from integrity, the country's main political forces also agree that the future state should be federative and democratic. This principle is supported by many prominent Shiite politicians, including Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who comes from an elite Shiite family.

His grandfather took part in independence talks and his father was an MP. Allawi was a member of the Baath party, which he left in the mid-1970s and was accused of being involved in an attempt to assassinate Hussein in February 1978. He had lived abroad, mostly in Britain, since 1971, which means that he is not connected with a religious party.

As for parties based on Shiite traditions, such as Al Daawa al-Islamiya (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), which will demand that the constitution include provisions reaffirming the Islamic nature of power in the country, they will hardly get enough votes at the election to be able to influence Iraqi policy.

That the majority of political forces in Iraq found points of contact on the key issues shows that the Iraqis will hammer out compromises, despite tactical differences. The main differences concern such immediate decisions as the format of the authorities and the representation of ethnic, religious and political groups in them.

It is difficult but not impossible to harmonize position on these issues. The main task for Iraq is to have authorities that can search for solutions to disputes that will satisfy all parties. The consolidation of Iraqi society will be impossible without this, and the consolidation process cannot begin without elections.

The writer is an assistant professor at the department of political science of the Institute of Asia and Africa at Moscow State University.