Elections put India at political crossroads

By Brahma Chellaney

NEW DELHI (JP): As Indians cast their votes to elect a new government, the country that is home to one-sixth of the world's population appears to be at a turning point in its history. The world's largest-ever election involving some 590 million eligible voters is, however, unlikely to result in a clear verdict, with none of the three major political groupings projected to win an absolute majority in Parliament.

The political scene, already reeking of corruption and opportunism, is expected to get even murkier before starting to clear up. Indian politics in the days after the last round of balloting today will turn into a virtual auction as the myriad parties jostle to come to power through fresh realignments and horse-trading.

Once the dust settles down, the new ruling coalition will confront a host of pressing issues neglected or not adequately addressed by the Congress Party government of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao.

Among the key policy challenges are how to achieve high economic growth as part of a liberalization drive, build cost- effective defenses against two powerful and closely aligned neighbors, China and Pakistan, and control demographic pressures in a country whose galloping population is set to cross the 1 billion mark by the end of this century. In addition, the new government will have to tackle ethnic and regional unrest in some areas, a subsiding but still bloody Moslem insurrection in Kashmir and environment-related problems across much of the nation.

Five years of feeble, corruption-besmirched governance by the Congress Party have convinced many Indians that coalition politics may not be a bad idea. After all, ethnically varied India itself is a coalition of diverse interests.

Rao, a sombre 74-year-old politician, was widely seen as a stopgap arrangement when he rode to power on the sympathy wave triggered by the assassination of his party leader, former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, in the 1991 election campaign. Once in power, Rao showed his wiliness by side-lining all his potential challengers in the party and turning his minority support in Parliament into majority support by luring opposition lawmakers to his camp -- in some cases with bribes, according to recent court testimony.

Rao, considered an indecisive politician who shirks hard decisions, is the antithesis of the sort of leader India today is crying for -- dynamic, charismatic and visionary. The only resolute course of action he undertook as prime minister -- initiating radical economic reforms -- was forced upon him by an acute balance-of-payments crisis that coincided with his appointment.

With India on the brink of external-debt default, Rao began reversing four decades of socialist-style policies to help secure multilateral credit assistance. His government has dismantled many trade and investment barriers, scrapped licensing controls, reduced tariffs and floated the rupee.

But government spending continues to swell, the mammoth public sector remains inefficient and unprofitable and labor laws still stop the closing of unproductive units. The number of Indians with "iron bowl" jobs in the government sector at 17 million exceeds the population of Australia.

The much-heralded market-oriented reforms, catapulting India into the U.S. list of the top 10 emerging markets, have been slowed down by Rao since the beginning of last year after a string of defeats in state elections. The reform program and Rao's image have been pummeled by a succession of major scandals involving speculative trading on the stock market, disinvestment of stock in government-owned firms, opening up of the telecommunications sector and political nepotism.

Lack of transparency in bidding processes and a nascent regulatory structure have bedeviled the reform program. The privatization drive, with its high stakes, has come to be widely seen by Indians as a windfall for corrupt politicians. The only silver lining is the increasing assertiveness of Indian's Supreme Court, which has ordered probes into several scandals.

Indian voters have in the past demonstrated their acumen by throwing out politicians who became too big for their boots, including Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and her son, Rajiv Gandhi. Now, the voters appear in a mood to inflict possibly the worst- ever defeat on Gandhi's' Congress Party, which has governed India for all but five years since independence. With a fast eroding grassroots base, the party seems to be in its twilight years.

The end of the Congress Party "raj" should free India of the political baggage it has carried for long, putting it on a new, ambitious path to the 21st century. The country finds itself at the political crossroads today, largely due to years of "soft" governance.

The stage has been reached where the new set of government leaders cannot shy away from taking tough, harsh decisions without seriously undermining fundamental national interests. The decisions they take could help shape India's destiny for the next quarter century or more. And by instituting electoral reforms, greater accountability and corruption cases against tainted politicians, they would help stem the political rot.

Some critical decisions looming large on India's horizon are related to its search for a "great power" identity. With the 50th anniversary of independence approaching next year, the world's second most populous nation has yet to develop a clear vision and blueprint on how to transform itself from a regional actor to an important player on the Asian and world stage. There is a growing domestic consensus, however, that India should focus on building its economic and military strength.

There is also increasing recognition that if India is to concentrate fully on economic modernization, it has to feel secure from external interference or aggression. With real defense spending continuing to plummet, India has put on hold convention al-force modernization for more than six years. As the gap with China widens and Chinese nuclear and missile technology continues to flow to Pakistan, a nuclear deterrent is becoming more attrac tive to New Delhi.

The challenges of building a reliable missile-based nuclear deterrent without testing, however, are forbidding for India, fueling its opposition to the proposed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Today, India is confronting an agonizing moment of truth on its long-held nuclear option: if it does not address the technical imperatives before a test ban takes effect, the option could be irreparably undermined.

A key decision awaiting the next government is whether to renew testing 22 years after the country's sole nuclear detonation. Only time will tell whether India will take the nuclear path.

The writer is professor of strategic affairs with the New Delhi-based independent think tank, the Center for Policy Re search.

Window A: Some critical decisions looming large on India's horizon are related to its search for a "great power" identity.

Window B: A key decision awaiting the next government is whether to renew testing 22 years after the country's sole nuclear detonation.