Elections critical times for nation

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The evaluation and expectation of the Indonesian general election have changed dramatically in the eyes of the Indonesian public and foreign observers.

The people have been slow in recognizing Golkar's decline caused by a rapid erosion of the government's authority, which has been its main support. This decline is occurring not only in regions that experience ethnic or religious conflicts but is felt across the whole archipelago as the government's abuse of power was rampant everywhere. Golkar has to pay the price of being the instrument of Soeharto's authoritarian rule.

Golkar's demise has been accelerated by Habibie's shortsightedness in forcing Golkar to nominate him as its sole candidate for the next presidency. This has given a strong impetus to the main reformist parties to form a united front against Golkar and Habibie. It has also resulted in the creation of alliances among Muslim parties such as The United Development Party (PPP) and the Justice Party to oppose Golkar and Habibie. This development has vanished Habibie's hope to be able to form a coalition between Golkar and the Muslim parties, PPP in particular.

Golkar's possibility to form a coalition has become almost nil. They can still gather votes by employing money politics but they no longer can come out as the strongest party.

The first week of the campaign period was quite peaceful, contrary to widespread expectations of outbreaks of violence. This could still happen during the last week of campaigning but it is not likely to create major disruptions to the election process. There has been a lot of self-restraint on the part of the opposition parties because of the good chances they have to win the elections and to form a new government.

Predicting the result of any election is always precarious. This is particularly the case for the 1999 elections because it is the first one held following a period of 30 years of authoritarian rule. However, if the experience of the 1955 elections could provide a clue, it is likely that four or five parties will come out as the main ones, although none of them will have a majority. And based on the leader's popularity and the existence of some organizational infrastructure of the parties, a prediction can be made.

Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) could gather over 30 percent of the votes. Its popular support is mainly, but not exclusively, on Java. The Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) based National Awakening Party (PKB) could get 20 percent of the votes this time. NU got 17.6 percent in 1955 and 18.3 percent in 1971. Its support comes mainly from the rural areas in Java. Amien Rais' National Mandate party (PAN) could get over 15 percent of the votes, mainly from the urban centers and the middle class, the younger generation and intellectuals. Golkar could get no more than 20 percent as it can no longer find support on Java, where it cannot even conduct its campaigns, and a loss of support from the bureaucracy in general. PPP support may dwindle as many Muslim parties have been formed. But it still has a name recognition and could get 10 percent of the votes.

Political developments after the elections are harder to predict. First, there is the question of how to reconcile a presidential system with the need to have a coalition Cabinet, since no single party is likely to have a majority in the People's Consultative Assembly. Second, what kind of coalition can be established, since the parties involved are new and have never worked together before?

Third, the problem of a new coalition could bring further challenges. For instance, coalition of PDI Perjuangan, PKB and the Indonesian Military (TNI) faction to form the next government could be seen as Java-based and could be opposed by the outer islands that are already in an anti-Javanese mood. This happened after the 1955 elections, that produced the Ali Sastroamidjojo Cabinet, which was supported by the Indonesia National Party, NU and president Sukarno.

The reactions to this took the form of separatism and regional rebellion led by some regional military commanders in 1957-1958 in Sumatra and Sulawesi. Today, centripetal tendencies are high and are more serious because they are led by people that are in a mood of defiance.

Or Megawati, although getting the most votes, could be rejected as a presidential candidate by some groups of the Muslim community because she is a woman. Her acceptability will depend on the strength of the opposition and on Gus Dur's (Abdurrahman Wahid, NU chairman) support for her. Yet, a polarization between some of the Muslim groups and the nationalists could happen and could be destabilizing. To prevent this, Amien Rais' PAN could play a critical role as a bridge because he is likely to have some strong support from the outer islands, and is also considered to have substantial Muslim support. His participation in the next coalition is, therefore, important.

Apart from this serious challenge, there are other important challenges. First, economic reforms should balance market- oriented policies with the need for greater social justice, particularly for the small people that have been marginalized for so long in the process of economic development. Second, convincing the people that economic recovery will take some time because the economy is in a very deep crisis. Third, the armed forces can play a stabilizing role under a legitimate government but only if they undertake real changes.

For the short term, the evaluation of the elections is rather upbeat because a decent and fair general election can be expected and the three main reformist parties could have more than 60 percent of the votes. However, the postelection period is more difficult to predict because the coalition will be something new and each member of that coalition does not have much experience in running a government.

It will not be an easy period, but the nation must go through it. It is critical that as a start, all parties must accept the result of the elections if it is relatively fair. Next, an agreement should be made among the reformist parties on the direction of reform and development programs. Then, a broad-based government is important to gain majority support from the people. This is the chance for the majority of the people to establish a government that has legitimacy and that can overcome the enormous problems the nation is facing. Unless this becomes a reality, the hope for establishing a nation based on unity, democracy and social justice could be lost.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.