Elections critical times for nation

Elections critical times for nation

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): The evaluation and expectation of the Indonesian
general election have changed dramatically in the eyes of the
Indonesian public and foreign observers.

The people have been slow in recognizing Golkar's decline
caused by a rapid erosion of the government's authority, which
has been its main support. This decline is occurring not only in
regions that experience ethnic or religious conflicts but is felt
across the whole archipelago as the government's abuse of power
was rampant everywhere. Golkar has to pay the price of being the
instrument of Soeharto's authoritarian rule.

Golkar's demise has been accelerated by Habibie's
shortsightedness in forcing Golkar to nominate him as its sole
candidate for the next presidency. This has given a strong
impetus to the main reformist parties to form a united front
against Golkar and Habibie. It has also resulted in the creation
of alliances among Muslim parties such as The United Development
Party (PPP) and the Justice Party to oppose Golkar and Habibie.
This development has vanished Habibie's hope to be able to form a
coalition between Golkar and the Muslim parties, PPP in
particular.

Golkar's possibility to form a coalition has become almost
nil. They can still gather votes by employing money politics but
they no longer can come out as the strongest party.

The first week of the campaign period was quite peaceful,
contrary to widespread expectations of outbreaks of violence.
This could still happen during the last week of campaigning but
it is not likely to create major disruptions to the election
process. There has been a lot of self-restraint on the part of
the opposition parties because of the good chances they have to
win the elections and to form a new government.

Predicting the result of any election is always precarious.
This is particularly the case for the 1999 elections because it
is the first one held following a period of 30 years of
authoritarian rule. However, if the experience of the 1955
elections could provide a clue, it is likely that four or five
parties will come out as the main ones, although none of them
will have a majority. And based on the leader's popularity and
the existence of some organizational infrastructure of the
parties, a prediction can be made.

Megawati Soekarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) could gather over 30 percent of the
votes. Its popular support is mainly, but not exclusively, on
Java. The Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) based National Awakening Party
(PKB) could get 20 percent of the votes this time. NU got 17.6
percent in 1955 and 18.3 percent in 1971. Its support comes
mainly from the rural areas in Java. Amien Rais' National Mandate
party (PAN) could get over 15 percent of the votes, mainly from
the urban centers and the middle class, the younger generation
and intellectuals. Golkar could get no more than 20 percent as it
can no longer find support on Java, where it cannot even conduct
its campaigns, and a loss of support from the bureaucracy in
general. PPP support may dwindle as many Muslim parties have been
formed. But it still has a name recognition and could get 10
percent of the votes.

Political developments after the elections are harder to
predict. First, there is the question of how to reconcile a
presidential system with the need to have a coalition Cabinet,
since no single party is likely to have a majority in the
People's Consultative Assembly. Second, what kind of coalition
can be established, since the parties involved are new and have
never worked together before?

Third, the problem of a new coalition could bring further
challenges. For instance, coalition of PDI Perjuangan, PKB and
the Indonesian Military (TNI) faction to form the next government
could be seen as Java-based and could be opposed by the outer
islands that are already in an anti-Javanese mood. This happened
after the 1955 elections, that produced the Ali Sastroamidjojo
Cabinet, which was supported by the Indonesia National Party, NU
and president Sukarno.

The reactions to this took the form of separatism and regional
rebellion led by some regional military commanders in 1957-1958
in Sumatra and Sulawesi. Today, centripetal tendencies are high
and are more serious because they are led by people that are in a
mood of defiance.

Or Megawati, although getting the most votes, could be
rejected as a presidential candidate by some groups of the Muslim
community because she is a woman. Her acceptability will depend
on the strength of the opposition and on Gus Dur's (Abdurrahman
Wahid, NU chairman) support for her. Yet, a polarization between
some of the Muslim groups and the nationalists could happen and
could be destabilizing. To prevent this, Amien Rais' PAN could
play a critical role as a bridge because he is likely to have
some strong support from the outer islands, and is also
considered to have substantial Muslim support. His participation
in the next coalition is, therefore, important.

Apart from this serious challenge, there are other important
challenges. First, economic reforms should balance market-
oriented policies with the need for greater social justice,
particularly for the small people that have been marginalized for
so long in the process of economic development. Second,
convincing the people that economic recovery will take some time
because the economy is in a very deep crisis. Third, the armed
forces can play a stabilizing role under a legitimate government
but only if they undertake real changes.

For the short term, the evaluation of the elections is rather
upbeat because a decent and fair general election can be expected
and the three main reformist parties could have more than 60
percent of the votes. However, the postelection period is more
difficult to predict because the coalition will be something new
and each member of that coalition does not have much experience
in running a government.

It will not be an easy period, but the nation must go through
it. It is critical that as a start, all parties must accept the
result of the elections if it is relatively fair. Next, an
agreement should be made among the reformist parties on the
direction of reform and development programs. Then, a broad-based
government is important to gain majority support from the people.
This is the chance for the majority of the people to establish a
government that has legitimacy and that can overcome the enormous
problems the nation is facing. Unless this becomes a reality, the
hope for establishing a nation based on unity, democracy and
social justice could be lost.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Centre
for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.