Election watch: A new political era?

The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

South Korea's presidential election officially kicked off Wednesday. It is being held against a background of rising tensions between the United States and North Korea on the one hand, and between South Korea and North Korea on the other, over Pyongyang's nuclear development program. Thrown into this mix is the stalemate in relations between Japan and the North over the abduction of Japanese nationals more than 20 years ago.

The Dec. 19 election outcome will have a considerable impact on ties between Seoul and Washington, which are showing signs of friction over the Bush administration's hard-line policy toward the North.

The result will also affect relations between Japan and South Korea, which dramatically improved after President Kim Dae-jung assumed office. The election deserves to be closely watched-by the Japanese people in particular.

The race will be, for all practical purposes, a two-way match- up between Roh Moo-hyun, 56, of the pro-government Millennium Democratic Party and Lee Hoi-chang, 67, of the opposition Grand National Party. The head-on confrontation between the candidates of the ruling and opposition parties will be the first since 1971 when Kim Dae-jung challenged President Park Chung-hee and was narrowly defeated.

During election campaigning, Roh argues for continuation of President Kim's sunshine policy toward the North and solving the North's nuclear development in a spirit of dialogue and reconciliation. Lee, on the other hand, contends the sunshine policy is a giveaway concession to the North. He advocates encouraging the North's reform and door-opening on the basis that both sides should give ground. On the question of the North's nuclear development, Lee takes a tougher stand than Roh. He insists on calling off the provision of economic assistance to the North if Pyongyang refuses to abandon its development of nuclear weapons.

There is also subtle difference in attitude between the two candidates over policy toward the United States. While Lee wants to maintain and strengthen the ties, Roh's emphasis is on equality between the two countries even though he recognizes the importance of cooperation.

The election will be a close contest. The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) may decide, at the meeting of its executive board to be held a little over a week before the election, to freeze construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea. How the North responds to such a decision could also affect the election result.

Whereas Roh passionately calls for new politics, Lee preaches the importance of stability and experience. The two candidates are in marked contrast not only in their background but also in their character and political style.

The election also puts an end to the days of "three Kims." Leading politicians of the generation represented by President Kim, 76, former President Kim Young-sam, 74, and Kim Jong-pil, 76, leader of the United Liberal Democrats, were impressive figures with strong personalities. They are now exiting from the center stage of politics. Politics of ideological confrontation and personal enmity will become a thing of the past.

The face-off between Roh and Lee, neither of whom is very closely associated with their native regions, will bring about changes in South Korea's traditional politics that were deeply rooted in regional conflict. This will be a good opportunity for measuring the maturity of politics in the South.

Neither Roh nor Lee is well known to Japanese. We want to know what they think about Japan.