Election fever turns global this year

Michael L. Tan Philippine Daily Inquirer Asia News Network Manila

Several countries will be holding general elections this year, with the results having regional and global implications. I thought it'd be useful to run through some of these elections and see what impact their results might have for the country itself as well as for the Philippines, neighboring countries and the world.

The one coming up this month is the Russian elections, with almost a sure win for the incumbent president Vladimir Putin. We might want to derive some comfort from their elections, given the choices Russians have: Former communists, business tycoons, and Putin himself, who can be a ruthless politician. The elections have been marked by all kinds of smear campaigns and one candidate disappeared halfway through the election campaign. He surfaced a few days later, hinting he had been kidnapped.

I'm more hopeful about the elections coming up on April 5 in our giant neighbor Indonesia, which figures prominently in our region's economics and geopolitics. For the Philippines, there is particular concern over the rise of extremist religious groups that may launch terrorist activities in Southeast Asia.

This election will be the first time Indonesians get to directly vote for their officials. Under the Soeharto dictatorship, members of the ruling party would get themselves elected and reelected in a process Indonesians sometimes described as "buying cats in a sack": The candidates would be revealed close to election time, sometimes known only when voters got to see the names on the ballot.

Today, Indonesian democracy is thriving, even if with much turbulence. They've had democratic elections after Soeharto's overthrow in 1998 but this year's election uses a very complicated process at different levels, from districts to the president and vice president.

Worth watching is the way they will be creating a new legislative chamber composed of Regional Representatives (DPD), with equal representation for all provinces and, take note, with the candidates not representing political parties. Elected representatives will have to work out alliances according to particular programs and policies, rather than adhering to strict party lines.

This is a very drastic move because unlike the Philippines, Indonesia has a long history of political parties with very distinct ideologies. The DPD actually tries to experiment with non-partisan politics, with the hope that legislators learn to go beyond narrow party loyalties as they craft their political strategies.

On April 15, South Africa will hold presidential elections, with a sure win for the ruling African National Congress. South African democracy has been vibrant, helping the country to slowly overcome years of damage brought about by apartheid and authoritarian rule.

Starting on April 20, the world's second most populous country will hold general elections, involving four rounds to be held over a three-week period. We're going to have to eat our hearts out as we see Indians cast their ballots on electronic voting machines, some one million of the units to be made available for 650 million voters.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win again, mainly buoyed by a strong economy. I was just there in early February and I was amazed at how India has been developing, with clear signs that it could easily overtake the Philippines in the next few years.

The BJP has been accused of promoting a rightwing form of Hindu nationalism; yet, they may actually win votes because they've been able to dialogue with long-time enemy Pakistan. India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers, which makes the south Asian region a volatile global flashpoint.

Filipinos go to the polls on May 10, after which there will be a global lull in election fever. All eyes will, however, be focused on the presidential campaign in the U.S.; although elections there aren't until November, we've already seen how the Democrats have been going around trying to choose a candidate to run against the incumbent, George W. Bush.

Talking with American friends the last month or so, I have to say I have never seen Americans so polarized. Most of my friends are liberal Democrats and they firmly believe that another four years of Bush will be disastrous for the U.S. and for the world. Their litany of complaints is endless, from his warmongering policies to his religious fundamentalism.

In many ways, opposition to Bush reminds me of the way Filipinos have been complaining about Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. This "anyone but the incumbent" attitude has affected the way the Democratic Party is trying to select a candidate. The field has narrowed down to two candidates; one of them, John Edwards, is more "likable" but in the end, it is likely John Kerry will be chosen to run because he projects a more stable image and is therefore seen as more "winnable."

Bush, on the other hand, has been as desperate as our Ate Gloria about scoring brownie points with his constituencies, riding on current burning issues such as proposing, recently, a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriages.

Watching American electoral antics reminds me, all too painfully, of the origins of our own system's emphasis on glitter and glamour. It is time we look to other electoral systems to explore alternatives.