Electable John Kerry?

Electable John Kerry?

The string of primaries conducted by the Democratic Party in
the United States leading toward the election of the party's
presidential candidate to confront the Republican George Bush in
the presidential election on Nov.4, is of course a purely
domestic American affair. However, given the imperial role of the
United States as an overwhelming global power with a very
assertive foreign policy, a great number of people in many
countries around the world, including Indonesia, are following
the idiosyncrasies of American politics with increasing interest.

Suddenly, as a result of primaries and caucuses in nine
states, John Forbes Kerry, the junior senator from Massachusetts,
is emerging as the possible presidential candidate of the
Democratic Party. Particularly, his achievement in winning the
Missouri primary -- in which 74 delegates to the party's
convention in Boston next summer were also present -- has
persuaded many observers that this new JFK, indeed has a serious
chance of becoming the party's presidential candidate for the
Nov.4 election.

Of course, Sen. Kerry still has a long way to go. He must
capture the support of at least 2,162 delegates, while so far he
has won over only a little more than 200 delegates. The important
point, however, is that John Kerry -- as compared to Vermont's
former governor Howard Dean, South Carolina's Sen. John Edwards
and Gen. Wesley Clark -- has gained the perception that he is the
one candidate who could beat President George Bush Jr.
The exit polls conducted by the Associated Press during the
primaries last Tuesday revealed not only the increasing stature
of John Kerry as a public figure, but, and more important
perhaps, the deep dislike that exists toward President George
Bush. Political programs expounded by candidates are not
considered that important anymore. The Democratic primaries
reveal that the party's voters simply want a candidate who could
beat George Bush.

It seems that Sen. John Kerry, in a speech in Seattle where he
was preparing himself for the party's caucuses in Washington
State this weekend, encapsulated what an increasing number of
Americans think of President Bush's global policies. He said
that: "George Bush has made America weaker by overextending the
armed forces of the United States, straining our reserves,
driving away our allies and running the most arrogant, reckless,
inept and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of our
country."

Rhetoric of campaign speeches aside, the large part of that
quote most probably succinctly reflects the feelings and opinions
of a great number of America's friends around the world. A
recently published book, "America Unbound -- the Bush Revolution
in Foreign Policy," written by two perceptive students of U.S.
foreign policy (the Brookings Institution's Ivo Daalder and James
M. Lindsay of the Council of Foreign Relations), takes an in
depth look into the Bush administration's assertive foreign
policy. The study concludes that "the deeper problem was that the
fundamental premise of the Bush (foreign policy) revolution --
that America's security rested on America Unbound -- was
mistaken."

Whether George Walker Bush Jr. will remain as president next
year or whether Sen. John Kerry will move from the Hill into the
White House will be decided in the presidential election on Nov.
4. However, we cannot help but notice that suddenly President
Bush does not look that invincible anymore. He has agreed to set
up a bipartisan commission to examine the possible overhaul of
the United States' intelligence operations. The inquiry would
also include a study of the misjudgments about Iraq's perceived
weapons of mass destruction, the existence of which the president
was so sure about. Television viewers around the globe also
observed from President Bush's body language in welcoming the
UN's Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, at the White House, a
politeness that was absent a few months ago in Washington's
statements about the world organization.

Of course, the Bush administration now desperately needs the
UN to release the U.S. from its Iraq quagmire before the
presidential election commences this summer. All in all, we will
follow with great interest the further developments of American
politics since the outcome of the Nov.4 presidential election
will assuredly have an impact on the geopolitical position of
many countries around the world, including Indonesia.