Electable John Kerry?

The string of primaries conducted by the Democratic Party in the United States leading toward the election of the party's presidential candidate to confront the Republican George Bush in the presidential election on Nov.4, is of course a purely domestic American affair. However, given the imperial role of the United States as an overwhelming global power with a very assertive foreign policy, a great number of people in many countries around the world, including Indonesia, are following the idiosyncrasies of American politics with increasing interest.

Suddenly, as a result of primaries and caucuses in nine states, John Forbes Kerry, the junior senator from Massachusetts, is emerging as the possible presidential candidate of the Democratic Party. Particularly, his achievement in winning the Missouri primary -- in which 74 delegates to the party's convention in Boston next summer were also present -- has persuaded many observers that this new JFK, indeed has a serious chance of becoming the party's presidential candidate for the Nov.4 election.

Of course, Sen. Kerry still has a long way to go. He must capture the support of at least 2,162 delegates, while so far he has won over only a little more than 200 delegates. The important point, however, is that John Kerry -- as compared to Vermont's former governor Howard Dean, South Carolina's Sen. John Edwards and Gen. Wesley Clark -- has gained the perception that he is the one candidate who could beat President George Bush Jr. The exit polls conducted by the Associated Press during the primaries last Tuesday revealed not only the increasing stature of John Kerry as a public figure, but, and more important perhaps, the deep dislike that exists toward President George Bush. Political programs expounded by candidates are not considered that important anymore. The Democratic primaries reveal that the party's voters simply want a candidate who could beat George Bush.

It seems that Sen. John Kerry, in a speech in Seattle where he was preparing himself for the party's caucuses in Washington State this weekend, encapsulated what an increasing number of Americans think of President Bush's global policies. He said that: "George Bush has made America weaker by overextending the armed forces of the United States, straining our reserves, driving away our allies and running the most arrogant, reckless, inept and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of our country."

Rhetoric of campaign speeches aside, the large part of that quote most probably succinctly reflects the feelings and opinions of a great number of America's friends around the world. A recently published book, "America Unbound -- the Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy," written by two perceptive students of U.S. foreign policy (the Brookings Institution's Ivo Daalder and James M. Lindsay of the Council of Foreign Relations), takes an in depth look into the Bush administration's assertive foreign policy. The study concludes that "the deeper problem was that the fundamental premise of the Bush (foreign policy) revolution -- that America's security rested on America Unbound -- was mistaken."

Whether George Walker Bush Jr. will remain as president next year or whether Sen. John Kerry will move from the Hill into the White House will be decided in the presidential election on Nov. 4. However, we cannot help but notice that suddenly President Bush does not look that invincible anymore. He has agreed to set up a bipartisan commission to examine the possible overhaul of the United States' intelligence operations. The inquiry would also include a study of the misjudgments about Iraq's perceived weapons of mass destruction, the existence of which the president was so sure about. Television viewers around the globe also observed from President Bush's body language in welcoming the UN's Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, at the White House, a politeness that was absent a few months ago in Washington's statements about the world organization.

Of course, the Bush administration now desperately needs the UN to release the U.S. from its Iraq quagmire before the presidential election commences this summer. All in all, we will follow with great interest the further developments of American politics since the outcome of the Nov.4 presidential election will assuredly have an impact on the geopolitical position of many countries around the world, including Indonesia.