El Nino's effects to go on until May, Agency predicts

JAKARTA (JP): The National Meteorology and Geophysics Agency has predicted that the El Nino phenomenon would continue to affect weather patterns in much of Indonesia until May.

Widodo Sulistya, head of the agency's meteorology service, told The Jakarta Post Thursday that earlier predictions of constant rain for later this month in the southern part of Indonesia may prove to have been false.

The predicted rains, mainly for Java and South Sumatra, were based on a 60-day cycle from the first heavy rains that fell in Jakarta in the first week of December.

"But due to the El Nino effect and the scrambling weather pattern in Australia, it looks difficult for rain clouds to form in the southern part of Indonesia," Widodo said.

"So the climate is likely to be back to normal around June."

An ongoing high air pressure system in Australia, which is creating a dry and fast north wind, has blown away clouds brought in by a west wind to Indonesia from Asia.

The north wind has blocked rain clouds, which are normally in Indonesian skies this time of year, near the equator, he explained.

"That's why rains have continuously fallen in the northern parts of Indonesia, but only sporadically in southern areas," he said.

The weather pattern is likely to continue until at least May, when the impacts of El Nino are predicted to be over.

Widodo urged the public to be aware that rainfall may prove sporadic but unusually heavy.

"Some areas around Jakarta, such as Tangerang and Bogor, have already experienced this (heavy rains). Last Tuesday, Bogor was hit by 50 millimeters of rain per hour. It's crazy... imagine the many areas that were suddenly turned into lakes," he said.

Jakarta was likely to experience the same heavy rains as well, he added.

Widodo also explained the cause of Jakarta's hot temperatures over the past few weeks.

"Usually hot temperatures emerge before rain falls because the clouds above Jakarta trap the sun's heat... creating hot temperatures.

"But because the clouds haven't 'matured' enough, there is no rain to break the heat wave," he said.

Sri Diharto, head of the agency, told the Post that the hot temperatures were also caused by a high level of humidity.

"The sun is located on the southern part of the equator, so Jakarta is exposed to a lot of heat. It's normal for Jakarta to experience a bit of heat (this time of year)," he said.

Jakarta hit a high of 34 degrees Celsius on Dec. 26, while Jan. 11 saw a high temperature of 33.6 degrees.

The normal temperature for this time of year should be between 30 degrees and 32 degrees Celsius.

Widodo also revealed that his agency was currently cooperating with the Agency for the Assessment and the Application of Technology (BPPT) to launch cloud seeding efforts in Malang, East Java, and Semarang, Central Java.

"The cloud seeding activities are hoped to help fill several dams and water reservoirs in those areas," he added.

He said that it would be difficult to create artificial rains for Jakarta because there were not enough clouds to seed.

"Currently the skies above Jakarta are overcast, but it would be hard because the wind quickly blows the clouds away. So, we really have to be patient about this condition," Widodo said.

The agency will hold discussions about El Nino's possible effects on Indonesia's weather patterns Monday.

"Hopefully the rains, even though sporadic, will continue to fall in Jakarta this month," he said. (edt)