El Nino to return but not as strong as 1997 version
Yogita Tahilramani, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Indonesia should brace for forest fires, crop failures, health hazards and environmental degradation this year due to the expected return of the dreaded El Nino weather pattern in July, a government official said.
Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) chief Gunawan Ibrahim said on Tuesday that the El Nino pattern that was forecast to hit Indonesia this year would be weaker than 1997 when severe drought ensued.
Nevertheless, parts of Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan would experience below normal rainfall, and could most likely be hit by drought.
Gunawan said drought could further trigger forest fires, mainly in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
"BMG will continue providing updated data to the Ministry of Forestry so that it will be able to control the triggers of forest fires. In Kalimantan, Jambi and Pekanbaru... fires have already begun," Gunawan told reporters on Tuesday.
During the devastating drought in 1997, fires destroyed an estimated 300,000 hectares of forests.
They also caused a thick haze which disrupted the lives of millions of people not only in Indonesia, but also in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines.
Most of the forest fires had also been blamed on corrupt timber and plantation companies which had deliberately set fires to clear land for their businesses.
In addition, the prolonged drought in 1997 also affected rice, cocoa and coffee crops and also contributed to inflation that sparked popular anger against then-president Soeharto, playing a part in his decision to step down in May 1998.
Indonesia is one of the world's largest producers of commodities such as cocoa, coffee, rubber and palm oil.
Most of the Indonesian archipelago enters the dry season in April.
"Some 49 percent of Indonesia will get below normal rain this dry season. We should watch for areas with a longer dry season and very low rainfall," Ibrahim said.
He added that among the most vulnerable areas were Java and Lampung, key rice-producing areas in Indonesia.
Other areas in Java most likely to be affected by "below normal" or low rainfall include major parts of Central and East Java, Pandelang, some parts of Sukabumi, Bandung, Subang, Cianjur and Tasikmalaya -- all in West Java.
Outside Java, areas predicted to be affected by low rainfall this year include Lampung, South Sumatra, Sorolangon-Jambi, Bengkulu, Kerinci, Batanghari, Bungotebo, Indragiri Hilir, Central Aceh, East, South and Central Kalimantan, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa, Flores and Maluku.
The El Nino weather pattern is a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean which brings dry conditions and wreaks havoc among weather patterns around the Pacific Rim.