El Nino may ease up from May on: Agency

JAKARTA (JP): The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) predicts the effect of the freak El Nino weather phenomenon -- which caused a prolonged dry season in some regions of Indonesia last year -- will most probably ease in May.

The agency also forecast that this year's dry season would be "moderately wet".

Agency head Sri Diharto said if the scenario held true, weather in Indonesia would soon return to normal and most regions would experience a typical dry season.

He said the El Nino effect would prevail unless "God should decide otherwise".

The unusual weather pattern is caused by a warming of the Pacific Ocean which causes climatic havoc around the globe. Experts have said last year's El Nino has been the worst this century.

It caused a prolonged dry season which ruined crops around the world and exacerbated forest fires which razed at least 300,000 hectares of forest in Sumatra and Kalimantan last year.

The agency said El Nino had been weakening since last month.

It based its analysis on data provided by several meteorological agencies in the world including the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and ASEAN's Specialized Meteorological Center.

The agency said the freak weather pattern would continue to weaken through next month, resulting in an increasing rainfall in most parts of the country except in East Kalimantan, where no rainfall had been reported since January.

BMG and world meteorological agencies have offered three scenarios to explain the weakening of the El Nio effect but warned it would be more realistic to consider the scenarios from May onward.

First, there is a 15 percent probability El Nino will last.

Second, El Nino will ease up and weather conditions will return to normal with a 50 percent possibility.

Third, there will be a reversal of the hot El Nino effect, namely the cold La Nina -- during which there is heavy rainfall and flooding.

Diharto said his agency had decided that the second scenario would be "the most probable".

Under this scenario, most parts of Java -- except some southern parts of West Java such as Cianjur and Lebak regencies and those in the southern part of Central Java like Kebumen and Magelang -- would enjoy enough rainfall during this year's dry season, he said.

A large proportion of the nation's remaining regencies -- except those in the eastern part of West Nusa Tenggara such as Alor and Solor, and the western part of South Sulawesi like Mamuju, Polewai and Majene, and the southern part of Irian Jaya like Merauke -- would also see enough rainfall during the dry season.

"People in the regions with less rainfall should be more alert," Diharto warned, referring to the possible threat of crop failures and forest fires during the period.

The dry season usually lasts from April until October. However, the El Nino effect prolonged last year's dry season until December in most parts of the country.

Despite the predicted weakening of El Nino, Diharto said the upcoming dry season would arrive at different times in different parts of the country.

Forty-three (42 percent) of 102 sampled regions across the country -- 63 in Java and 39 outside Java -- will enter the dry season in May; 21 will enter the season in April; 31 regions in June; and seven in July.

Rainfall over the period will also vary with 47 regions (46 percent) experiencing "below average" rainfall, 31 regions with normal rainfall, and 24 regions with "above average" rainfall.

For further details on regional forecasts, interested parties can access the agency's homepage on http://bmg.cbn.net.id.

Diharto said the agency's forecasts would be updated on the fifth of every month. (aan)