Effects of the U.S. presence in Asia

By Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo

JAKARTA (JP): During his visit to Southeast Asia this month, U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen stated firmly that the U.S. government had decided to maintain its military presence in East Asia. He said that the forward deployment of U.S. military forces in East Asia was not only to guarantee his nation's interests, but to benefit Asian nations interested in the maintenance of stability and the balance of power in the region.

This is quite easy to understand because the U.S. has many interests in East Asia which must be guarded. The economic boom that has taken place lately in the U.S. under the Clinton administration has been facilitated by developments in East Asia. The U.S. certainly wants to gain more economic benefits from its relations with East Asian nations. Although many East Asian nations currently are facing very serious economic problems, U.S. leaders are convinced that the present situation is only temporary and that the region will overcome its grave difficulties and move forward again with a dynamism that it has demonstrated in the past.

That is why the U.S. has always wanted to be a part of East Asian developments, preferably a leading part. That is why it will never agree with Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's concept of an East Asian economic grouping without U.S. membership. The U.S. military presence should take care of this interest.

Politically, the U.S. does not wish to see China develop into a rival that is capable of threatening U.S. interests in the global arena, let alone in Asia. China shows a potential to develop into a world power since it has been able to grow economically by more than 10 percent annually on a continuous basis. It has also been able to modernize and strengthen its military which is increasingly becoming capable of projecting its power both in the region and globally. This development is certainly not very agreeable to the U.S.

The U.S. is right if it concludes that its military presence in East Asia also benefits many East Asian nations. Japan is definitely interested in a U.S. presence because it does not have the obligation to start a military buildup to balance China's growing military capabilities. A change in Japan's defense policy could start a political chain reaction which could change perceptions of the balance of power and create tension.

The Koreans are certainly glad with the U.S. decision for a continued presence since it supports a peaceful and systematic unification of the two Koreas.

In Southeast Asia, most members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) warmly welcome the U.S. military presence. Some of them are worried about the growth of China's military power. Others are also concerned about a Japanese military buildup, while one or two of them view the U.S. military presence as a guarantee of ASEAN harmony. It is common knowledge that certain parties in ASEAN hold some anxiety about a strong Indonesia and its potential assertiveness toward its neighbors.

We can therefore say that the U.S. decision is generally well accepted in East Asia. There are even rumors that certain elements in China view the U.S. decision somewhat favorably since there are some who are worried about a remilitarized Japan. They regard the U.S. decision as a safeguard against that possibility.

There are, however, some possible problems for the future which could harm the relations between East Asian nations and the American people. When, in the 1970's and the 1980's, Japan demonstrated its formidable economic prowess, which was viewed as a cause of the economic slowdown in the U.S., the American people reacted angrily.

When the Japanese yen became very strong in relation to the U.S. dollar and wealthy Japanese started buying up American property in the U.S., including the famous Pebble Beach Golf Course, the RCA building in New York and other significant American realty, the American people became very critical of the Japanese. They accused Japan of taking a free ride under the American nuclear umbrella to enrich themselves, while at the same time destroying the American economy.

Many American companies could not compete with Japanese companies and had to go bankrupt resulting in thousands of Americans being laid off. All this could only happen, according the American view, because the Japanese did not need to make heavy expenditures for defense since the U.S. military protected Japan.

Many Americans were very disgusted with the situation. Some federal legislators demonstrated their strong sentiments against Japanese economic superiority by destroying a Japanese-made car in front of the Congressional building. In other demonstrations of emotions, laborers damaged Japanese properties in the U.S. There was a strong anti-Japanese sentiment throughout the nation. Some people were crying for war against Japan -- at least an economic or trade war.

Could the same thing not happen if East Asian nations were able to overcome their present economic difficulties, become wealthy and effectively compete against the Americans? The American people could certainly accuse East Asian nations that they were free from large defense spending because of the U.S. military presence, much as they did with the Japanese.

If East Asian countries were able to strongly compete with U.S. companies, we would have to anticipate the growth of an anti-Asian sentiment in the U.S. What the consequences of such a sentiment would be only the future could tell. This negative side of the U.S. military presence in East Asia cannot be overlooked.

The writer is an ambassador at large to the Nonaligned Movement. He is a former Indonesian ambassador to Japan and a former governor of the National Resilience Institute.