Effective government may remain a dream

Effective government may remain a dream

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor, National Resilience
Institute (Lemhanas), Jakarta

It is clear that Indonesia badly needs an effective
government: A government with a vision of a better Indonesia and
with the capability to make it a reality. A government that can
bring improvements to the disorder that has accumulated since the
economic crisis. The country and the people want more security
and are tired of the worsening conditions of crime in the cities,
ethnic conflicts, even the dangers on the roads and in trains.

As for the Bali tragedy, while it is most devastating, is not
the first among the many incidents involving bombs that has
disrupted people's sense of security.

Other nations in the region have solved the problems
encountered since the economic crisis, but Indonesia is still
lagging behind. The flow of outgoing investors is not only an
immediate effect of the Oct. 12 tragedy, and of course it is
increasing now. Meanwhile, since the activities of small and
medium enterprises are also without strong growth, it is obvious
that unemployment has steadily increased also.

If the government is unable to make the economy grow and yield
revenues, how can it meet President Megawati Soekarnoputri's
promise to increase the budget for the Indonesian Military (TNI)
and the National Police? Separately, how is one to enforce the
decree of the People's Consultative Assembly, that the government
should prioritize national education by committing at least 20
percent of the budget to it?

The government has admitted that it cannot spend more than 4
percent on education in the coming year. Improving the security
apparatus and national education are significant factors for the
achievement of a better Indonesia, which has been the aim of the
"reform movement" since 1998.

There are many other reasons why Indonesia needs an effective
government. The present government is not effective because there
is a lack of a strong and decisive leadership. For over 200
million people comprised of various ethnic groups, there can be
no effective government without strong leadership. Strong
leadership does not mean to be authoritarian, but a strong leader
should be able to motivate and gain the confidence and respect of
the people.

Strong leaders must therefore be able to reach the people and
communicate with them. If former presidents Sukarno and Soeharto
are strongly criticized, it is certainly not because of their
lack of strength in leadership.

Although most of the people are not satisfied with the
indecisive leadership of President Megawati, it is still better
for the nation to have her as president rather than to replace
her.

With the present political system, candidates for the
presidency must be members of the political parties or must be
elected by them. The political parties are not interested in
electing anybody from outside, but then again, they don't have
leaders of a higher quality than Megawati either.

Certainly, it is not proper for the country to have three
short-term governments in a row. Presidents B.J. Habibie and
Abdurrahman Wahid did not last longer than 20 months; it would be
better if Megawati's government could last at least until the
2004 elections.

Still, unless the President changes her style of leadership,
we will not have an effective government until 2004. We might
have a direct presidential election; nevertheless, political
parties still have a lot of say because they will nominate the
presidential candidates.

It is doubtful whether politicians can change their attitudes
and be willing to nominate someone who is not from their ranks. A
pity, because such independent candidates would broaden the scope
for improving the national leadership, rather than relying only
on party leaders. A possibility for an effective government lies
in the possibility of strong leaders among independent
candidates.

Nominations dominated by party leaders will mean nothing more
than the candidates we observe today, namely: Megawati supported
by her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan),
Hamzah Haz with his United Development Party (PPP), Amien Rais
from the National Mandate Party (PAN), and perhaps Abdurrahman
Wahid, who seems ambitious about making a comeback supported by
his National Awakening Party (PKB).

The problems surrounding Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung will
make it difficult for that party to field an attractive
candidate. Perhaps Yusril Ihza Mahendra from the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) will also appear, as well as Ryaas Rasyid and
Syahrir, who have both declared new political parties.

However, it is very doubtful whether these candidates can gain
majority support, and this leads to the necessity of building
coalitions. The best hope for an effective government in 2004 are
independent candidates who have the confidence and respect of the
majority of the people.

The elected non-party president may therefore be able to rally
a political party to back him up, because his mass support may
benefit the party backing him. This independent presidential
candidate may thus have the chance to establish a government that
may lead the nation effectively for at least five years.

There are admittedly many question marks in this analysis. The
first is the uncertainty between now and 2004. One can only hope
that in spite of the weaknesses of the present government, there
will be no serious events with very negative consequences for the
nation.

The second is whether, in 2004, there will appear an
independent candidate who can build a strong support of the
majority of the people. The third question, no less important, is
the willingness of a political party to nominate an independent
candidate for the presidential elections.

All these questions raise our doubts of having an effective
government even in 2004.

There are those who play with the idea of military
intervention. The TNI has no tradition of coup d'etat and so will
not start one. The TNI leadership fully realizes that the people
will not condone their interference in political affairs,
especially since reformasi, and thus will not risk its reputation
by gambling on it. The TNI is serious and fully committed in
supporting the democratic process in Indonesia.

Unfortunately, this democratic process has not been able to
develop effective leadership among the civilian political elite.