Wed, 19 Jun 1996

Eastern region's population growing too fast: Report

By Deborah Cameron

JAKARTA (JP): New research by Indonesian and Australian demographers has found that the population of Indonesia's poorest region is expected to grow by 48 percent by 2020, presenting planning problems and major economic challenges for Indonesia.

A report released last week in Jakarta called People, Land and Sea -- Development Challenges in eastern Indonesia, says that infrastructure, environmental protection, the human resource base and job opportunities all need to improve to cope with predicted population growth.

Prepared by the Indonesia-Australia Population-Related Research for Development Planning and Development Assistance Project, the 174-page report is the collaborative effort of senior demographers from both countries funded by AusAID.

It recommends changes to Indonesia's criteria for allocating development funding and questions central government policies which hold back development.

The report says that development funds should be given on the basis of "unexploited regional potential" and not provincial population size, a change that would deter provinces such as Maluku and Irian Jaya from seeking larger populations without considering sustainability.

The authors say that accelerated population growth results from the positive developments of improved health care and lowered mortality. But this has resulted in a state of dynamic disequilibrium. In terms of population and development, "maintenance of the status quo is not an option," the report says.

"Changes are occurring and will inevitably occur in all aspects of life, and managing them in the interests of maximizing welfare is the challenge facing planners."

The report underlines what it describes as the "basic problem" of central government policies holding back regional development and cites as an example of policies that govern the processing of tree crops which, in effect, tax producers at source and protect the interest of consumers, largely in Java.

"Thus copra has to be processed by coconut oil producers in Java, and rattan may not be processed at source but instead must be sent to Surabaya," the report says.

There are also central government policies restricting the sale of coffee, rubber and cloves, all of which harm local economies.

eastern Indonesia has a key need for dedicated government officials to be located where their services are needed and the report recommends provisions to encourage transfers by public servants and hardship allowances for teachers, doctors and nurses.

It also recommends that international air and sea links be opened to the region and that tourism investment be encouraged.

"The development of eastern Indonesia has a great deal to do with its international relations," the report says.

"Its slow development to date has much to do with its status as 'the end of the line', isolated from Jakarta and with few international contacts until recent times. Potentially though, it is a gateway to the world, lying in close proximity to Australia, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines."

People, Land and Sea is a collaboration between the Center for Population and Manpower Studies at the Indonesian Academy of Sciences (PPT-LIPI) and the Demography Program Research School of Social Sciences at the Australian National University. The project is funded by the Australian Agency for International Development, AusAID.

The five provinces of eastern Indonesia -- Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Timor Timur, Maluku and Irian Jaya -- have a current population of 12 million people spread over a landscape that varies from dense jungle to dry slopes. The provinces also include some of the archipelago's most fragile ecosystems.

The report editors were the coordinator of the demography program at ANU, professor Gavin Jones, and the director of the Center for Population and Manpower Studies at LIPI, Dr. Yulfita Raharjo.

AusAID, the official Australian government aid agency, annually provides about A$130 million in development assistance to Indonesia.