E. Asian economic regionalism becomes reality

E. Asian economic regionalism becomes reality

Bunn Nagara, The Star, Asia News Network/Selangor, Malaysia

The first summit of East Asian leaders is due on Dec. 14,
capping many years of hard work. But this will only be a
beginning, at a time when relations in North-East Asia are in
disrepair and the summit includes Australia, New Zealand and
India

Finally, the vision of East Asian regionalism heaves into
policy reality, as Malaysia hosts the first East Asia Summit in
10 days' time.

It has been 15 years this month since Malaysia proposed the
idea of an East Asia Economic Grouping. Since then, there have
been ebbs and flows in the regionalist concept, amid political
upheaval, natural disasters and an East Asian economic crisis.
Although it may not seem like it, the wait has been longer for
Japanese advocates of the regionalist idea.

Even leaving aside the ill-conceived notion of an imperialist
Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, Japanese thinkers and
leaders including former premier Yasuhiro Nakasone had conceived
of nearly a dozen regionalist concepts in the last half-century.

But ironically, now that these ideas approach fruition for the
first time, it is Japan that stands in the way of further
progress.

In recent months, the government of Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has presided over a decline in bilateral relations with
Beijing, Taipei, Seoul and Pyongyang, with reverberations fanning
out to the rest of Asia from the Yasukuni Shrine as epicenter.

The shrine commemorates the exploits of 1,000 Japanese war
criminals, alongside other Japanese troops slain in war. In 1979
some of the leading war criminals were proclaimed martyrs,
leading to the controversy that remains to this day.

Koizumi has dismissed protests and criticisms from abroad as
merely the objections of China and South Korea. That is a
strategic miscalculation, because the issues go far beyond
Yasukuni and impact on matters of collective interest.

Adding to the problem is a sense of Koizumi's insensitivity.
As prime minister he has paid homage to the shrine a record five
times, then in May this year lambasted foreign critics on the eve
of an official visit to Tokyo by Chinese Vice-Premier Wu Yi.

Koizumi kept up his uncompromising bent throughout, and in
late October appointed two reactionary conservatives to key
Cabinet positions. These were incoming Foreign Minister Taro Aso
and Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, both notoriously
unapologetic about Japan's war conduct and strong candidates to
succeed Koizumi next year as prime minister.

This rightward lurch has caused concern in various parts of
Asia, including Japan, where the critics include outgoing foreign
minister Nobutaka Machimura. At a stroke, consensual diplomacy
appeared to have been replaced by muscular brinkmanship.

Besides Yasukuni, Japan is also seen as culpable on issues
like government-approved revisionist history textbooks
whitewashing its war conduct, disputed ownership of islands in
the East China Sea, and control of undersea mineral deposits.

All of these are happening at a time when Japan is also
seeking a permanent seat on the UN Security Council to decide on
war and peace, while also hoping to refashion its armed forces
for foreign missions. It amounts to policy over-reach that is not
only undiplomatic but impolitic, by politicians who are more old-
style ideologues than modern strategic thinkers.

All these years when East Asian regionalism was being nurtured
carefully by policy thinkers in the region, there was a consensus
that the gains of each member state would be based on the
collective gains of all. Underpinning this was an implicit need
for greater cooperation for enhanced integration.

The 11th ASEAN Summit (Dec. 12-13) would also see the 9th
ASEAN + 3 Summit and the first East Asia Summit (Dec. 14), and
also what would have been the 7th North-East Asian Summit between
China, South Korea and Japan on the sidelines. Beijing has said
the latter is now impossible, and Seoul appears to concur.

China has placed the responsibility for the chill in relations
on Japan, and Japan has put the initiative for proceeding with
the trilateral summit on China. Summits are useful within limits
as gestures of substance, but Koizumi has crafted events as to
impoverish gesture and substance.

So what are the prospects of the first East Asia Summit,
albeit one with EAEG "plus three" countries Australia, New
Zealand and India? Skeptics might say that success seems bleak,
but realpolitik suggests otherwise.

In terms of context, virtually all the other countries Japan
will be meeting had been invaded, humiliated and brutalized by
Japanese war criminals. That defines the sub-text, in which China
and South Korea have already won the PR battle over Japan.

There is still time for Koizumi's advisers to be savvy enough
to recognize this, and work towards a more conciliatory position.
That might mean taking the initiative to warm relations for a
trilateral summit with its immediate neighbors in Kuala Lumpur.