Drought extends in East Indonesia
Drought extends in East Indonesia
Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The eastern part of Indonesia will experience protracted
drought triggered by a weak to medium El Nino phenomenon between
2002 and 2003, a disaster mitigation team predicted on Thursday.
The team, under the auspices of the Office of the State
Minister for Research and Technology, said that under normal
conditions, many areas in the country should have reached the
transition period between the dry and wet season, with rains
coming in November.
"But we forecast that the country is undergoing a weak to
medium El Nino, signs of which started in May 2002," Zadrach L.
Dupe, a team member told a press conference on Thursday.
"This kind of El Nino, based on our studies of the El Nino
phenomenon between 1980 to 2000, will shift drought from West to
East Indonesia." he added.
He said the country might not suffer food shortages, but
people must be careful in managing their paddy fields.
According to him, forest fires in Kalimantan might continue
due to the prolonged drought.
However, there would be an increase in the number of fish in
Indonesia waters as El Nino would trigger upwelling sea currents
in Indonesia waters, which bring food for fish, thus attracting
more fish to come here, Zadrach said.
He also said the drought would reach its top level in October
and rainfall would drop by 50 percent in January.
The Geophysics and Meteorology Agency (BMG) has said it had
projected that the rainy season in the country would arrive late
this year by up to one month.
The team predicted the weak to medium El Nino will end in May
2003, and the climate will return to normal until 2004.
Water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have increased by over
half a degree since June, a strong signal that El Nino will
return in 2002-2003, but it needs five successive months before
these signs can be said to be a result of El Nino weather
patterns.
El Nino brings warm water from the western Pacific Ocean
(Indonesia and Australia) eastward (Western part of South
America), reversing the normal pattern.
It therefore causes serious drought for Indonesia as happened
in 1997-1981 but causes heavy rainfall in the western part of
South America.
The team said the present El Nino weather pattern may not
cause food shortages, but admitted that it would continue to
trigger forest fires in the country.