Dramatic downfall of Estrada

President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid quickly called the new Philippine President Gloria Aroyyo to congratulate her on Saturday, Jan. 20 (SCTV, Jan. 20). Arroyo, the daughter of a former president Diosdado Macapagal, had successfully forced the politically weakened Joseph Estrada to resign. At first, Estrada was defiant and his stubbornness paid off -- he had to leave Malacanang in disgrace.

Honestly, I cannot imagine what President Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid actually was thinking at the time he congratulated Arroyo. Gus Dur must have known that Estrada was in hot water when it was clear that he had been receiving illegal gambling bribes. It is probably naive, but one can easily draw a parallel between what Estrada and Gus Dur have faced recently.

Tension between Gus Dur and his opponents is greatly intensifying as the country is continuing to face massive problems and the scandals allegedly involving the President are continuing to create political uncertainty. Furthermore, rows between the executive and legislative bodies due to their political immaturity have certainly made the situation worse. Their greed for power has become too obvious. It is likely that the political elite are still suffering from the "culture shock" of having power. After all, this is what democracy is.

The battle on the streets has moved to the legislative building, so this is not that bad. People voted for them so that the political elite could fight for their constituent interests. I only hope these leaders would learn and begin to gain political maturity while people get accustomed to the spark of democracy.

But what is more interesting to me is how Gus Dur will behave in facing the psychological pressure caused by the dramatic downfall of Estrada. When Ferdinand Marcos was toppled by people power, a shrewd Soeharto began to strengthen his grip on power more firmly by suppressing media and jailing dissidents. He did it very systematically through the constitutional mechanism with the help of the "rubber stamp" House of Representatives.

When Soeharto was finally toppled by the reform movement which cost tears and blood of the young, the paranoid Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad reacted by firing and jailing his deputy Anwar Ibrahim and severely suppressing other opposition groups who made an attempt to make use of the momentum to launch democratic reform in Malaysia. When Thai generals were forced to go back to the barracks, the Myanmarese reacted nervously by holding on to their power more firmly. When the democratic movement swept the Jakarta streets, the brutal Yangon military regime showed the world that Aung San Suu Kyi was still confined to her house and wasn't going anywhere.

The dramatic political changes in the Philippines will certainly spread a psychological effect in the region, particularly to our already politically shaken country, either positively or negatively. It is very interesting to see how Gus Dur, Megawati, Amien Rais, Akbar Tandjung and other political celebrities are going to behave in the coming weeks or months. So let's get ready to sit in front of our TV with a bag of popcorn; just forget our deep and prolonged multidimensional crisis, and watch this coming entertainment -- live from Jakarta.

R. ALPHA AMIRRACHMAN

Jakarta