Don't write Golkar off

Many political analysts have expressed second thoughts about Golkar's supposed slim chance in next week's elections. With voting just a week away, the mood has switched from one of dismission to one of dread that Golkar could extend its winning streak to seven consecutive polls, even with a heavily reduced share of the vote. The bottom line is that Golkar might still clinch a significant tally of votes to secure the election of incumbent B.J. Habibie as Indonesia's president in November.

One analyst, Hermawan Sulistyo of the Research Institute for Democracy and Peace, has done his calculations of the complex election process in Indonesia. In an article in this newspaper last week, Hermawan said there is still a high chance of Golkar winning a significant number of votes in the elections. Through a coalition with other factions in the People's Consultative Assembly, including the military, regional representatives and societal group representatives, Golkar could secure the presidency for Habibie in November. He said Golkar would only need to win 25 percent of the vote, a realistic target, to achieve this goal.

Golkar has certainly put up a fierce fight in the current election campaign period, even as it faces a growing backlash in many regions, including Jakarta. The party has continued to organize open rallies in spite of threats and intimidation. On one occasion in Jakarta, it even deployed its own armed guards. Anything the opposition did, Golkar made a point of showing it could do it too, and sometimes better. In South Sulawesi, Golkar supporters set fire to the office of the National Mandate Party (PAN).

With Golkar figures controlling most, if not all of the TV stations in the country, and many regional radio stations, the party has access to the masses that new parties cannot reach. Golkar has a massive amount of funds, probably unmatched even if all the other big parties would pool their resources together. Golkar can draw from this to finance its open, and also covert, campaign operations.

With Golkar flexing its huge muscles in the run-up to the elections, no one can write it off too easily. Having been in power for more than 32 years, Golkar is not likely to take defeat lying down. On the contrary, it is bent on winning the polls, even at the expense of risking a confrontation with the proreform forces.

The question on everybody's minds today, however, is whether the election results, whatever they are, will be accepted by the people. What if Golkar wins a significant part of the vote? Given the backlash against Golkar these past few days, it is difficult to envisage that this anger will stop, or that it is even stoppable, if Golkar does win. The prospect of more ugly violence is too dreadful to consider, but it is a possibility.

But even more worrisome is the prospect of another five years under a Golkar and Habibie administration. Irrespective of their claims of having adopted reforms, the past year alone shows clearly that the current administrators are anything but reformists, whatever they claim to be.

Some of the political reforms introduced in the last 12 months, including this election process and the greater tolerance of political freedom and press freedom, were not the result of genuine policy initiatives from the government. They resulted from strong public pressure exerted on the administration, which has no constitutional legitimacy, much less popular support. On many other points, the government has shown its anti-reform stance. These include the investigations of former president Soeharto's alleged corruption and other injustices committed by the military before and under the present administration.

If Golkar and Habibie, with all their illegitimate claims to power, have managed to slow down the reform process these last 12 months, one can be sure that an elected Golkar government and President Habibie would stop the process completely, and even reverse the process when and where it is convenient to them.

There is only one thing that can prevent Golkar and Habibie from returning to office, and that is for all the major pro- reform groups to join forces. The leaders of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have drawn the battle line for these elections: Reform vs. Status Quo.

Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais and Abdurrahman Wahid may be ideologically separated, and are indeed competing against one another in these elections, but they know that they have a common enemy to beat first: the status quo forces in the form of Golkar and Habibie. They have also indicated that they are prepared to forge a coalition, after the votes are counted, if that's what it takes to beat the status quo. Given that Golkar is fiercely fighting to win votes, the three parties might in fact be called to task to form that coalition government and spare the nation from more suffering and misery under Golkar and Habibie.