Don't write Golkar off

Don't write Golkar off

Many political analysts have expressed second thoughts about
Golkar's supposed slim chance in next week's elections. With
voting just a week away, the mood has switched from one of
dismission to one of dread that Golkar could extend its winning
streak to seven consecutive polls, even with a heavily reduced
share of the vote. The bottom line is that Golkar might still
clinch a significant tally of votes to secure the election of
incumbent B.J. Habibie as Indonesia's president in November.

One analyst, Hermawan Sulistyo of the Research Institute for
Democracy and Peace, has done his calculations of the complex
election process in Indonesia. In an article in this newspaper
last week, Hermawan said there is still a high chance of Golkar
winning a significant number of votes in the elections. Through a
coalition with other factions in the People's Consultative
Assembly, including the military, regional representatives and
societal group representatives, Golkar could secure the
presidency for Habibie in November. He said Golkar would only
need to win 25 percent of the vote, a realistic target, to
achieve this goal.

Golkar has certainly put up a fierce fight in the current
election campaign period, even as it faces a growing backlash in
many regions, including Jakarta. The party has continued to
organize open rallies in spite of threats and intimidation. On
one occasion in Jakarta, it even deployed its own armed guards.
Anything the opposition did, Golkar made a point of showing it
could do it too, and sometimes better. In South Sulawesi, Golkar
supporters set fire to the office of the National Mandate Party
(PAN).

With Golkar figures controlling most, if not all of the TV
stations in the country, and many regional radio stations, the
party has access to the masses that new parties cannot reach.
Golkar has a massive amount of funds, probably unmatched even if
all the other big parties would pool their resources together.
Golkar can draw from this to finance its open, and also covert,
campaign operations.

With Golkar flexing its huge muscles in the run-up to the
elections, no one can write it off too easily. Having been in
power for more than 32 years, Golkar is not likely to take defeat
lying down. On the contrary, it is bent on winning the polls,
even at the expense of risking a confrontation with the proreform
forces.

The question on everybody's minds today, however, is whether
the election results, whatever they are, will be accepted by the
people. What if Golkar wins a significant part of the vote? Given
the backlash against Golkar these past few days, it is difficult
to envisage that this anger will stop, or that it is even
stoppable, if Golkar does win. The prospect of more ugly violence
is too dreadful to consider, but it is a possibility.

But even more worrisome is the prospect of another five years
under a Golkar and Habibie administration. Irrespective of their
claims of having adopted reforms, the past year alone shows
clearly that the current administrators are anything but
reformists, whatever they claim to be.

Some of the political reforms introduced in the last 12
months, including this election process and the greater tolerance
of political freedom and press freedom, were not the result of
genuine policy initiatives from the government. They resulted
from strong public pressure exerted on the administration, which
has no constitutional legitimacy, much less popular support. On
many other points, the government has shown its anti-reform
stance. These include the investigations of former president
Soeharto's alleged corruption and other injustices committed by
the military before and under the present administration.

If Golkar and Habibie, with all their illegitimate claims to
power, have managed to slow down the reform process these last 12
months, one can be sure that an elected Golkar government and
President Habibie would stop the process completely, and even
reverse the process when and where it is convenient to them.

There is only one thing that can prevent Golkar and Habibie
from returning to office, and that is for all the major pro-
reform groups to join forces. The leaders of the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National
Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have
drawn the battle line for these elections: Reform vs. Status Quo.

Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais and Abdurrahman Wahid may
be ideologically separated, and are indeed competing against one
another in these elections, but they know that they have a common
enemy to beat first: the status quo forces in the form of Golkar
and Habibie. They have also indicated that they are prepared to
forge a coalition, after the votes are counted, if that's what it
takes to beat the status quo. Given that Golkar is fiercely
fighting to win votes, the three parties might in fact be called
to task to form that coalition government and spare the nation
from more suffering and misery under Golkar and Habibie.