Don't ignore election impact, says analyst

Don't ignore election impact, says analyst

By Angela Romano

BRISBANE, Australia (JP): The forthcoming election will still
influence the political processes in Indonesia, even though it
will have little impact on the leadership structure, a senior
Indonesian political analyst said Thursday.

Hadi Soesastro, the director of the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies in Jakarta, said the government had
observed indications of voter dissatisfaction and community
anger, and the nuances of the election results would be closely
scrutinized.

Speaking to a meeting of Indonesian and Australian lecturers,
students and other intellectuals at Griffith University, Hadi
disagreed with analysts, such as Indonesian sociologist Arief
Budiman, who argue the election will not affect Indonesia's
political situation.

He agreed the election is unlikely to change the makeup of
Indonesia's leadership, but said the importance of the election
will lie in shifts in voting patterns, such as the expected surge
in the number of people choosing not to vote.

"It is predicted that Golput could reach up to 15 percent,
compared with 9 percent in the last general election," he said.

Golput, or golongan putih, is the Indonesian term for
discontented voters who abstain from voting or make their vote
invalid.

"Even in the villages people know what the Golput hand signal
means."

The leadership is also sensitive to indications of a slump in
support for Golkar in key areas, with predictions that Golkar
might only win 40 percent of the vote in East Java and Greater
Jakarta.

Hadi said this election period is more tense than previous
elections because of greater community discontent.

"In 1977 there were demonstrations and tension, but the unrest
was mainly confined to students. Now it is more the people (who
are involved).

"I don't think the recent riots and unrest have been
engineered, as many people think. It is just that people are
angry."

Feelings of tension are coupled with a lack of confidence
about the ability of the security apparatus to control the
situation, he said.

Hadi said waning support for the Indonesian Democratic Party
(PDI) was an important social indicator. Some estimates suggest
the party will not get more than 9 percent of the vote, the
think-tank director said.

"Soerjadi (the new PDI chief) is still hoping that at the
eleventh hour (ousted PDI leader) Megawati (Soekarnoputri) will
come in and save the PDI by bringing her support to the party.

"On the other hand, many PDI supporters are still waiting for
a fatwa (edict) from her or some statement that she will not
vote.

"The dilemma for them is that if that happens, most of the
votes will go to Golkar."

Hadi said that although the United Development Party (PPP)
looks set to increase its share of overall votes, "there is
something of an uncertainty factor that PDI votes will be
redirected to the PPP".