Don't ignore election impact, says analyst

By Angela Romano

BRISBANE, Australia (JP): The forthcoming election will still influence the political processes in Indonesia, even though it will have little impact on the leadership structure, a senior Indonesian political analyst said Thursday.

Hadi Soesastro, the director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, said the government had observed indications of voter dissatisfaction and community anger, and the nuances of the election results would be closely scrutinized.

Speaking to a meeting of Indonesian and Australian lecturers, students and other intellectuals at Griffith University, Hadi disagreed with analysts, such as Indonesian sociologist Arief Budiman, who argue the election will not affect Indonesia's political situation.

He agreed the election is unlikely to change the makeup of Indonesia's leadership, but said the importance of the election will lie in shifts in voting patterns, such as the expected surge in the number of people choosing not to vote.

"It is predicted that Golput could reach up to 15 percent, compared with 9 percent in the last general election," he said.

Golput, or golongan putih, is the Indonesian term for discontented voters who abstain from voting or make their vote invalid.

"Even in the villages people know what the Golput hand signal means."

The leadership is also sensitive to indications of a slump in support for Golkar in key areas, with predictions that Golkar might only win 40 percent of the vote in East Java and Greater Jakarta.

Hadi said this election period is more tense than previous elections because of greater community discontent.

"In 1977 there were demonstrations and tension, but the unrest was mainly confined to students. Now it is more the people (who are involved).

"I don't think the recent riots and unrest have been engineered, as many people think. It is just that people are angry."

Feelings of tension are coupled with a lack of confidence about the ability of the security apparatus to control the situation, he said.

Hadi said waning support for the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) was an important social indicator. Some estimates suggest the party will not get more than 9 percent of the vote, the think-tank director said.

"Soerjadi (the new PDI chief) is still hoping that at the eleventh hour (ousted PDI leader) Megawati (Soekarnoputri) will come in and save the PDI by bringing her support to the party.

"On the other hand, many PDI supporters are still waiting for a fatwa (edict) from her or some statement that she will not vote.

"The dilemma for them is that if that happens, most of the votes will go to Golkar."

Hadi said that although the United Development Party (PPP) looks set to increase its share of overall votes, "there is something of an uncertainty factor that PDI votes will be redirected to the PPP".