Domestic issues will have regional impact on ASEAN-10
The following is an interview with the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies Jusuf Wanandi, on ASEAN's recent decision to accept Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia into its embrace in July. The interview was held during the Asia Pacific Roundtable meeting in Kuala Lumpur last week.
Question: As ASEAN-10 will become a reality next month what do you think is the most immediate agenda of the regional grouping?
Answer: First, ASEAN has to change its customary working system with its seven members. Not all decisions will have to be taken by consensus anymore, for example. Second, we have to bolster our supporting agencies in order to buttress the institutionalization process.
So far we have too many meetings around the place and a small secretariat staff. We need to reinforce the office and set up institutions dealing with specific issues like, for example, political security.
All issues are currently being handled by the Senior Officials Meeting (SOM). There is no permanent staff in SOM or in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) dealing specifically with political security, for example.
Third, we have to look into what kind of things we are able to do in the economic sphere. This is important to avoid a situation in which they are not yet prepared to join the ASEAN Free Trade Area when the time comes. In other words, this is to avoid an ASEAN with two different economic stages, the prosperous and the less prosperous one. We do not want this to happen.
It is important for us to offer technical assistance to the new members, assistance for human resources development and for their macroeconomic policies. We need to send a team to every one of those new ASEAN member countries to serve as development corps, borrowing from the American peace corps. We need to give them comprehensive and relevant assistance. We can also help them in their efforts to secure foreign aid from international institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
We will have to assist the new members, especially Myanmar, in responding to foreign criticism and also to ASEAN.
Our credibility will also be at stake with the inclusion of Myanmar and Myanmar is expected to recognize this and be willing to cooperate with us in responding to such criticism be they from the Western press, non-governmental organizations, governments or from similar parties within ASEAN countries themselves who really wish to see a more politically open and transparent Myanmar.
It is also hoped ASEAN's constructive engagement policy will get them started in their national political reconciliation.
This should start with a change to their constitution and be finalized by holding dialogs with various societal groupings to set up a plan for a general election to end the current ad hoc character of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) government.
This process will have to begin. One of the important issues is the future position of Aung San Su Kyi. ASEAN should never stay idle in all these matters. Malaysian Foreign Minister Badawi is visiting Myanmar this week after returning from Laos and I am sure he will underline the obligations of being an ASEAN member.
Q: What about Cambodia?
A: With Cambodia we have to underscore that the two rival groups, the Funcinpec (National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Cooperative Cambodia) and the CPP (Cambodian People's Party) of Hun Sen should be able to cooperate and not attack each other, even less cause a civil war, because we have done a lot for them and they have achieved a lot of progress on their road to peace.
Should they resort to confrontation, it would destroy everything. The recent report on the country made by Sukhumbhand Paribatra (of the Bangkok-based Institute for Political Research) is very helpful. It says the country's political situation is serious but not hopeless and a request for a national reconciliation from a third party says we should support this in fear they would never become a good member of ASEAN. One encouraging thing is that both rival groups insist on becoming ASEAN members.
Q: Talking about domestic politics we certainly can not overlook Indonesia, the biggest member of ASEAN which seems to face an imminent succession issue...
A: I know that all attention is directed at how far domestic political stability can contribute to regional stability. They know that Indonesia is a big country, and whatever happens to it will have an impact on ASEAN and every member is therefore concerned about our situation.
And we also have to be aware that we can not behave in an arbitrary fashion politically as whatever we do will have a regional impact that will affect not only our own people but the people of the whole region.
So we should be very careful about what we are going to do and we should always take into account the fate of other people in the region. This will be a challenge in the near future.
Q: How can this challenge be overcome?
A: Well, ASEAN has a different way in dealing with political issues. Unlike Western countries, ASEAN countries may resort to the Asian way of avoiding public condemnation and criticism.
We should find a mechanism where we are able to freely exchange constructive criticism and pose critical questions based on an awareness that whatever happens in an ASEAN country will affect the whole region.
Q: Do you think that will work?
A: The Asian way will work. First, the most important thing is that we will have to hold a dialog (with new members). Second, we will have to exert peer pressure, a pressure from us all to convince them in a positive way (of the need to change).
Q: Some countries, such as Myanmar, may take a defensive stance...
A: Yes, that is the case. They are doing things in absolute terms. This has to be forsaken entirely. The principle of non- intervention is no longer there simply because it has been violated, not by the government, but by NGOs who have done so repeatedly. That's why we have to create a mechanism for this in order not to let them go out of hand. This will be a problem. We have tried to discuss it in terms of good faith.
Q: How long will this kind of effort last?
A: It certainly takes time, five to ten years before it can become a well-developed method. We should not use pressure of any kind to let it happen. Rather we should allow it to develop in a a natural way. This should be accomplished in stages and in an evolutionary manner.
Q: Are you optimistic about it?
A: There is no other way. Our integration is bound to make us stronger economically and allow us to cooperate in other fields.
Q: In the roundtable discussion you spoke about an institution such as an ASEAN assembly to help foster dialog between member countries?
A: That's right. The holding of the second track meeting (informal meeting involving NGOs and government officials in their private capacity) allowed us to exchange opinions in an effective manner.
If not, frustration will spill over into the streets in Malaysia, Thailand or in the Philippines where NGOs were protesting over East Timor. We should be able to talk about this kind of issue with a cool head and an open mind despite our non- intervention principle. We need to think about a mechanism of this kind.
In this line of thinking, we can not refrain from being more interdependent in the future. Whatever happens in a neighboring ASEAN country will in turn affect us, hence, we can't afford to let other countries do whatever they like. In the least, there should be an exchange of ideas and criticism conducted in a constructive way to enable us to correct our erstwhile unfounded behavior.
Q: Do you have a time frame of when to start all this?
A: We are having an ASEAN congress next month here (Kuala Lumpur) and we are going to invite our NGOs, those who are not ideologically oriented and those which are recognized by ASEAN and working in the field of justice and humanitarian affairs such as the National Commission on Human Rights and those working in the field of youth and women's affairs. Government representatives, businessmen and professionals will also be invited.
Q: Back to the intervention issue, there are those who believe it is the ARF which helps institutionalize foreign intervention. Is this true?
A: It is actually an inaccurate perception. First, they seem to look at the 1971 concept of ZOPFAN (Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality) as hostile to a big country.
But this is not the case, we have always recognized the right of the presence of a big power in our region. What we don't condone is the hegemony of a big country in our region. We want to have the right to decide our own fate and define the significance of their presence in our midst. This has been so since 1971.
So, it is not true that the presence of a big power is only possible after the ARF. The ARF itself is a step forward for ZOPFAN. We invited all big powers to be present in our region through ZOPFAN as long as they didn't show their hegemony over the region. And now we have the ARF which is an institution to see how their presence is best defined.
So we can invite China and the United States to the region and find a regional order through the ARF. This is an improvement of the ZOPFAN concept, not only dealing with their presence, but together with us all we can decide how best their presence can be made.
Q: In the roundtable you suggested the creation of a unit under SOM?
A: I am thinking of a permanent arrangement for ARF since it keeps taking turns according to its chairman, now being Malaysia, but there is no permanent unit under its authority to support the implementation of the institutional memory of the ARF, and this is precarious.
Q: Is there an economic motivation behind the expansion of ASEAN?
A: As I see it, the main motivation is political, diplomatic and strategic reasons. When 10 countries unite into a regional grouping we will be stronger.
Second, it is more difficult to break us apart or get us involved in a clash with each other or at least it is easier to prevent us from fighting each other.
We also have a diplomatic weight on the international political stage, and this is the main issue. Certainly, there is economic importance involved, especially for the medium- and long-term. (hbk)