Divisions between Iranian forces reach a crisis

By Geneive Abdo

TEHRAN: A woman was shown on Iranian television recently dancing without a headscarf and wearing a low-cut, sleeveless shirt. It is the first time in 20 years that such risque shots have been allowed on the state-run network.

But the pictures were not what they seemed. They were of a protest by the woman, an expatriate, and a man who demonstrated at a conference in Berlin attended by Iranian intellectuals. They stripped naked to disrupt the conference and embarrass the visiting reformists.

The images gave conservatives ammunition to condemn the intellectuals for traveling to the West and to discredit their reformist rivals. But the footage prompted thousands of people to buy copies of the video on the black market.

As the week wore on, hardliners let it be known that their supporters in the elite Revolutionary Guards were contemplating a coup against President Muhammad Khatami, and the conservative judiciary jailed leading journalists and closed 16 progressive publications, including one run by the President's brother, Muhammad Reza Khatami.

The closure of the newspapers triggered peaceful sit-ins by students in universities across the country. They began printing pamphlets to fill the information gap.

The divisions in Iran have reached a crisis. Conservatives, backed by hardliners in the Revolutionary Guards -- an estimated 150,000 men who comprise about one-third of the armed forces -- and the basij, an Islamic militia, have force on their side.

The reformers' greatest weapon is public opinion, which wants to modify the Islamic system to allow greater social and political freedom.

Senior commanders in the Revolutionary Guards held a meeting about two weeks ago to map out a strategy to reverse the reformists' power, which has risen since they won a plurality of seats in parliamentary polls on Feb. 18.

The Guards have organized a "crisis committee", which according to sources, is headed by former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. The committee's aim is to create chaos in the country, and if necessary, stage a coup to oust Khatami, according to notes from a tape of the meeting.

Rafsanjani has a personal motivation to avenge the reformers. He ran for parliament, but came in a miserable 30th and may be forced into a second round of voting to be held on Friday. The votes are still being recounted and his standing remains unclear.

One participant at the meeting recommended that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is allied with the Right, assign duties to representatives in the provinces so "that a sense of terror could be created". Once people were provoked they would presumably defend themselves, giving the basij and Guards a pretext to use violent force to re-establish order.

"The revolution, Islam and the blood of the martyrs are endangered," one senior Guard commander said. "One option is to sit and watch, the other is to create a strong executive headquarters. In the first phase, we will weaken the other side. In the second, we will stop them from advancing, and in the third phase we will remove them from the scene."

Khamenei met several prominent reformers recently, including his half-brother, at the other end of the ideological divide, and Reza Khatami, the President's brother.

In the meeting, meant to defuse the crisis, Khamenei warned of those who wanted to distort the revolution's principles under the guise of reform.

Since the February polls, the conservatives have nibbled away at the reformists' victory by disqualifying reformist front- runners in at least 11 constituencies.

The aim among some conservatives is to nullify the election and prevent the new parliament from convening. In the second round of elections, the reform movement will also find it more difficult to campaign against the well-organized rightists now their printing presses have fallen silent.

The degree to which the conservatives will dilute the reformist victory depends on Khamenei. He has power over all matters of state, and has final say over the Guardian Council, the body comprised largely of conservatives who are charged with supervising the election and the results.

More than anything, the current crisis has exposed the powerlessness of Iran's presidency. The most Khatami can do at this stage is hope public opinion will come to his rescue, should massive protest become the only weapon to forge ahead with reform.

-- Observer News Service