Democracy, but oil takes precedence

One of the candidates in Kazakhstan's presidential elections in January claims to be a clairvoyant, but anyone can predict that the winner will be the incumbent, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Mr. Nazarbayev is a thinly disguised dictator who stages elections he has no chance of losing. Few Western leaders complain, however, because he is seen as the guarantor of stability in an oil-rich nation.

Mr. Nazarbayev was initially one of the more democratic of the Central Asian rulers, but since 1995 he has steadily expanded his powers. A compliant Parliament recently passed constitutional amendments extending the presidential term from five years to seven and lifting term limits.

Mr. Nazarbayev has been jailing political opponents on libel charges and last week kicked his leading opponent, former prime minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin, off the ballot on a technicality. Mr. Nazarbayev has also been shutting down the country's few independent newspapers. Television is controlled by his daughter.

American officials raise such issues with Mr. Nazarbayev when they visit, and call democratic development an important U.S. goal in the region. But oil takes precedence, as Kazakhstan's proven oil reserves alone come to 10 billion barrels. Mr. Nazarbayev controls these contracts and provides stability in a region where fundamentalist Islam is growing. He has been received warmly by President Clinton.

Kazakhstan's democratization is not a priority for Washington, and Mr. Nazarbayev knows it.

This is not only wrong, but also shortsighted. The absence of accountability in Kazakhstan has allowed corruption to thrive. It is beginning to interfere with foreign investment, as officials have arbitrarily revoked or renegotiated contracts. Corruption is also helping to wreck the economy. Powerful businessmen have blocked needed economic reforms, such as bankruptcy laws. Kazakhstan cannot pay wages or pensions on time.

No one expects Central Asia to become a haven of democracy overnight, but the region has built virtually no democratic political institutions under its current leaders. Mr. Nazarbayev's speeches promise fair elections and a free press. The West should hold him to this, starting with the restoration of Mr. Kazhegeldin's right to challenge him.

-- The New York Times