Defection signals problems in N. Korea
By Andrew Browne
SEOUL (Reuter): The daring defection of a North Korean pilot in his MiG-19 on Thursday could signal a breakdown in the country's vaunted armed forces and underscores growing unrest among its elite, political analysts said.
But the analysts warned that a backlash in Pyongyang against the embarrassing loss of an air force captain to South Korea could threaten peace moves on the Korean peninsula.
The defection occurred hours after an incursion into Southern waters by a flotilla of North Korean naval vessels, the latest in a string of warlike moves apparently designed to grab the attention of Washington.
"The defection indicates there could be a shortcoming in the North Korean military mechanism," said Noriyuki Suzuki, an analyst with Radio Press, which monitors North Korean broadcasts.
"It must be worrying for their leaders that no planes were scrambled in time to head it off."
Fighter pilots in North Korea form an elite body, as in other countries.
But their position is even further exalted in an impoverished nation that has poured scarce resources into building one of the world's largest war machines with 1.1 million men and women under arms.
The escape of captain Li Chol-su, 30, the first Northern pilot to fly a military plane across the border since 1983, is an extraordinary breach of military discipline in tightly-regimented North Korea, according to the analysts.
They believe aviation fuel is in such short supply that Northern air force pilots are down to virtually zero flying time. "Losing a pilot is a great blow for North Korea," said Young Min- kim, an official in Seoul's Unification Ministry, which overseas policy towards the north.
"You have to put a lot of money into training a pilot."
A string of high-level defectors, including diplomats, to South Korea in recent months have told of shortages biting into the lives of the Communist elite, whose support Pyongyang's Stalinist leaders once took for granted.
While visitors to Pyongyang report an atmosphere of calm and control, a picture of grinding poverty with peasants foraging for edible leaves and roots has raised questions over how long the Communist regime can survive.
Gary Luck, the commander of U.S. forces in South Korea, told a recent congressional hearing in Washington it was no longer a question of if North Korea would collapse, but when.
For South Korea, the defection is a propaganda coup. Authorities are planning to shower pilot Li with gold and cash and have already invited journalists to snoop around his aging Soviet-era plane.
But Suzuki of Radio Press cautioned there could be a political penalty to pay.
"North Korea will not want to lose face over this defection. It may now take a tougher line on agreeing to any diplomatic measures to solve tension on the Korean peninsula," he said.
After a string of border incursions by North Korea last month, South Korea and the United States unveiled a new peace proposal for four-nation talks, also including China.
They are now trying to coax Pyongyang towards the negotiating table in a bid to replace an armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War with a peace treaty.
Pyongyang's strategy is to bypass Seoul and sign a peace agreement directly with Washington. Analysts said its naval incursions on Thursday were part of that effort.
"They're looking for attention from the United States," said one Seoul official, who declined to be named.