Days of uncertainty
Days of uncertainty
Official assurances of security notwithstanding, there is no
denying the ominous sense of uncertainty that is beginning to
grip the Indonesian capital city as the scheduled date for the
People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to convene in a special
session approaches.
"Scheduled" is the key word in this particular instance and,
once again, accusing fingers are pointed at Gus Dur -- President
Abdurrahman Wahid's popular nickname -- although the public
controversy over who is right and who is being unconstitutional
in the current political battle is far from closed.
The issue in question is actually not a new one. The MPR
insists it must hold a special session on Aug. 1 to ask the
President to account for his erratic policies of the past two
years. President Abdurrahman Wahid, who initially questioned the
constitutionality of the MPR holding a special session, finally
agreed to go along, but only as long as this supreme legislative
body refrains from demanding an accountability report from the
him.
Abdurrahman still insists the MPR has no business calling him
to account for his leadership at this juncture, much less impeach
and unseat him as president. Since the overwhelming majority of
the MPR factions for their part refuse to budge from the
position, a deadlock has arisen.
Always the shrewd, if not mercurial political player, Gus Dur
has given the legislators until July 20 to fall back, threatening
them with the prospect of his declaring a state of civil
emergency and disbanding both "houses" of the national
legislature, the House of Representatives (DPR) and the MPR.
The MPR is, up to this moment, holding its ground, and will
most likely continue to do so until the very end, which, given
Gus Dur's stubborn and unpredictable nature, makes all sorts of
developments in the coming days possible, if not likely.
Under the worst-case scenario, thousands of the President's
followers from his East Java political home base and Central Java
will descend on the capital to defend him at whatever cost. If
that happens, bloody clashes between Gus Dur's followers and
opponents are far from imaginary -- not to mention the police and
military who have vowed to secure the MPR special session from
undue disturbances.
It is difficult to see how that could save the President from
being ousted. The problem, though, is what would be the
consequences of such a development -- which no sane Indonesian
desires. For now it looks pretty certain that the MPR will hold
its special session. The question is, when?
The MPR board has called on its members to be ready to attend
a plenary session at an hour's notice should Gus Dur go ahead
with his plan to declare a state of emergency and dissolve the
legislature. About 80 percent of its members were reportedly
already in Jakarta as of yesterday.
Under the present circumstances, the broad sketch of
developments appears predictable enough. However, if events are
left to themselves to develop, the price the nation will have to
pay for the constitutional process to take its course will be
high.
The best thing that can be hoped for is that all Indonesians
-- whatever their office, religious or political leaning, or
station -- will come to realize that the only expedient way out
of the nation's current difficulties is in allowing the
Constitution to take its natural course.
Democracy, it seems, is not something that is easily learned
-- all the more so in a diverse and traditional society such as
makes up the majority of Indonesians. However, in its present
condition, for Indonesia, time is of the essence. Unless
Indonesians are willing to learn and respect the ways of
democracy, the future looks bleak indeed.