Days of uncertainty

Official assurances of security notwithstanding, there is no denying the ominous sense of uncertainty that is beginning to grip the Indonesian capital city as the scheduled date for the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to convene in a special session approaches.

"Scheduled" is the key word in this particular instance and, once again, accusing fingers are pointed at Gus Dur -- President Abdurrahman Wahid's popular nickname -- although the public controversy over who is right and who is being unconstitutional in the current political battle is far from closed.

The issue in question is actually not a new one. The MPR insists it must hold a special session on Aug. 1 to ask the President to account for his erratic policies of the past two years. President Abdurrahman Wahid, who initially questioned the constitutionality of the MPR holding a special session, finally agreed to go along, but only as long as this supreme legislative body refrains from demanding an accountability report from the him.

Abdurrahman still insists the MPR has no business calling him to account for his leadership at this juncture, much less impeach and unseat him as president. Since the overwhelming majority of the MPR factions for their part refuse to budge from the position, a deadlock has arisen.

Always the shrewd, if not mercurial political player, Gus Dur has given the legislators until July 20 to fall back, threatening them with the prospect of his declaring a state of civil emergency and disbanding both "houses" of the national legislature, the House of Representatives (DPR) and the MPR.

The MPR is, up to this moment, holding its ground, and will most likely continue to do so until the very end, which, given Gus Dur's stubborn and unpredictable nature, makes all sorts of developments in the coming days possible, if not likely.

Under the worst-case scenario, thousands of the President's followers from his East Java political home base and Central Java will descend on the capital to defend him at whatever cost. If that happens, bloody clashes between Gus Dur's followers and opponents are far from imaginary -- not to mention the police and military who have vowed to secure the MPR special session from undue disturbances.

It is difficult to see how that could save the President from being ousted. The problem, though, is what would be the consequences of such a development -- which no sane Indonesian desires. For now it looks pretty certain that the MPR will hold its special session. The question is, when?

The MPR board has called on its members to be ready to attend a plenary session at an hour's notice should Gus Dur go ahead with his plan to declare a state of emergency and dissolve the legislature. About 80 percent of its members were reportedly already in Jakarta as of yesterday.

Under the present circumstances, the broad sketch of developments appears predictable enough. However, if events are left to themselves to develop, the price the nation will have to pay for the constitutional process to take its course will be high.

The best thing that can be hoped for is that all Indonesians -- whatever their office, religious or political leaning, or station -- will come to realize that the only expedient way out of the nation's current difficulties is in allowing the Constitution to take its natural course.

Democracy, it seems, is not something that is easily learned -- all the more so in a diverse and traditional society such as makes up the majority of Indonesians. However, in its present condition, for Indonesia, time is of the essence. Unless Indonesians are willing to learn and respect the ways of democracy, the future looks bleak indeed.