Crucial issues in RI's polls

Why would Gen. Faisal Tandjung, chief of the Armed Forces (ABRI), take the unusual step of pledging the military's support to Golkar? It has by tradition been neutral in politics: soldiers do not vote in national elections and ABRI gets a fixed representation of 75 seats in the 500-seat parliament to give substance to its dual function of guaranteeing state security and its social role. What Gen. Feisal said flies in the face of precedent -- in January, Defense Minister Edi Sudradjat reminded ABRI to preserve strict neutrality and last year, army chief Gen. Raden Hartono was criticized for asking army families to support Golkar. Last week, Interior Minister Yogie Suardi Memet said the country's six million civil servants had to "channel their aspirations through Golkar" -- in other words, vote status quo. Most astounding was Mr. Soeharto's cryptic remark that he would "clobber" anyone who tried to unseat him unconstitutionally. Though his qualifier that he would step down -- "if that is what the people want" -- was in accord with established order, all sorts of interpretations will be made of what he had said. His sixth term ends in March next year, but, barring the emergence of a successor who has remained hidden from public view all this while, his continued reign is his for the asking. Why, then, the convergence of prodding and less than subtle persuasion?

Detractors who are ill-informed about the Indonesian fusion of guided democracy and a father-figure might see the pre-election skirmishing as a sign that a creaky country is coming undone. Loyalists count the reminders to the military and the civil service as pure ritual, confident that the election outcome is predictable. The truth lies somewhere in between. The Soeharto succession is a constant reminder of Indonesian fragility, even if he serves another term. Names have been bandied about but it would take a bold person to declare that Indonesia can move seamlessly from the soeharto era, which has lasted 30 years, to the next one, when it comes. This is the key issue of the election, although it will be barely raised in the campaign.

-- The Straits Times, Singapore