Croatia's military offensive

The war in the Balkans has reached another dubious milestone with the Croatian army's swift and successful offensive against Serb fighters and civilians who have controlled the Krajina region between Zagreb and the Adriatic coast for the last four years. Like the Bosnian government, which has adopted a more aggressive military strategy in recent months, Croatia seems to have given up on international efforts to roll back Serbian conquests and decided to act itself.

It is not yet clear whether this shift will speed an end to the former Yugoslavia's sufferings or make matters worse. What seems reasonably certain is that the initiative is now passing from outside powers, long frustrated in their efforts to achieve diplomatic compromise, to Balkan leaders impatient for clear-cut military solutions.

In less than four days, 100,000 Croatian troops took over the vast Krajina region, inhabited by Serbs for centuries. Tens of thousands of Serbian refugees are now streaming east into Bosnia and Serbia. The offensive also enabled Croatia's president, Franjo Tudjman, to help break the long Serbian siege of Bihac, one of Bosnia's four remaining enclaves supposedly under UN protection.

The United States and Germany signaled clear sympathy for the Croatian offensive while Russia, Britain, and France strongly opposed it. Serbia, interestingly, stood by passively. That sends a strong signal that Serbia's real interests in Croatia lie elsewhere, some 50 miles away in the eastern border zone between the two countries, which Belgrade on Monday hastened to reinforce.

Formally, Washington and Bonn say they would have preferred a peaceful resolution of the Krajina issue. Both publicly regret the apparently large number of civilian casualties and Croatia's mistreatment of UN peacekeepers. But both countries are happy to see somebody fight the Serbs and welcome the relief of the besieged citizens of Bihac. The Croats, they note, are only reclaiming their own occupied territory and helping Bosnia, a neighbor and ally, defend itself.

True enough, for now. But Croatia's 20th-century record of aggression and "ethnic cleansing" is every bit as bad as Serbia's. Memories of the atrocities committed by Croatia's Fascist Ustashe regime against Serbs, Moslems, and Jews during World War II helped fuel the Serbian revolt in the Krajina four years ago. In the latest Krajina operation, Croatian forces have ignored their promises of respect for the rights of Serbian civilians.

Tudjman has long sought to divide up the entire territory of Bosnia between himself and Serbia's president, Slobodan Milosevic. If the Bosnian government has reason to rejoice now over Bihac, it also has reason to fear for tomorrow. In 1991, Milosevic backed the Krajina's secession with Yugoslav army tanks. His refusal to defend the Krajina Serbs against Tudjman's forces now suggests some kind of understanding between the two presidents.

The outside world, however, may have some effective leverage for discouraging Tudjman from moving beyond his own borders. Croatia is eager to join Western Europe's economic and political institutions. It also strongly values its good relations with the United States. Having winked at Tudjman's resort to force, Washington now has a strong obligation to help see that his victory does not become a prelude to further tragedy.

-- The New York Times