Critical days for Northern Ireland

The next few weeks are critical to the prospects for peace in Northern Ireland. Elections there this week will produce delegates to attend all-party peace talks that are scheduled to commence on June 10. With the help of some goodwill on all sides, the days ahead could bring real progress toward ending this long and tortured conflict.

There have been some hopeful signs in recent days. John Major, the British prime minister, cleared away one obstacle earlier this month by saying that London would not insist on the disarming of the Irish Republican Army before all-party talks could begin. It was an important concession, and not an easy one for Major to make.

Gerry Adams, the leader of Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA, followed Major's good example by formally agreeing to the principles of nonviolence contained in a report on the Irish problem prepared by an international commission headed by former U.S. Senator George Mitchell.

The next step in this encouraging sequence must be the declaration of a new cease-fire by the IRA. Without that, Sinn Fein will be barred from the all-party talks, and the chances of reaching a peace agreement will swiftly fade.

There is now every reason for the IRA to suspend its revived terror campaign. The organization's greatest concern -- that it would have to accept immediate disarmament before talks could begin -- has been removed. To alleviate lingering IRA concern about the conditions and timing of disarming, Major should offer a specific plan for dealing with the issue as part of the all- party peace talks.

The talks are set to unfold on three tracks. The first will deal with issues within Northern Ireland. The second -- and most controversial -- will address the relationship between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The third will handle the relations between Britain and the North. There should be a fourth track on disarmament issues. The whole negotiating enterprise is based on the sensible principle that agreement in one area will not be valid unless the parties reach agreement in all phases of the talks.

Mitchell, who is viewed as an honest broker by all sides, should be given a central role in the peace talks, possibly chairing the plenary sessions when all the delegates meet together. Alternatively, he could direct the discussion of north- south issues, or lead disarmament negotiations.

David Trimble, who heads the Ulster Unionist Party, has threatened to bring down Major's government -- which now survives with a one-vote majority -- if the prime minister fails to make disarmament of the IRA a condition for any negotiation. Trimble is bluffing. If he were to bring down Major, which is far from certain, he could not expect a better deal from a Labor leader.

The next move is up to the IRA. Adams has worked hard to bring peace to his homeland, but he cannot take the next step without the help of the IRA. There has not been a better opportunity in a generation to settle the Irish conflict.

-- The New York Times