Crisis situation may increase the death rate

Crisis situation may increase the death rate

JAKARTA (JP): Crime, natural disasters, epidemics and
starvation brought on by sheer poverty could increase the rate of
death in the next five years, a demographer said Wednesday.

This prediction was among the worst of four "scenarios"
discussed in a one-day seminar on demographic projections and
parameters after the economic crisis.

Aris Ananta of the University of Indonesia's Demography
Institute, said the number of people living below the poverty
line would decrease "simply because they are wiped out by death".

These deaths would also be caused by "wars", he said, without
further elaboration, apparently hinting at the numerous internal
conflicts in the country. Maternal mortality, he also said, would
rise as abortions would likely increase.

The worst-case scenario of prolonged economic crisis and riots
in the next five years could bring down participation in family
planning programs from 55 percent in 1998 to 47.5 percent in the
year 2003, said Maswar Noerdin, first assistant to the State
Minister of Population.

"We have to admit the fact that in the next five years the
family planning program will entirely depend on the political and
economic situation here," he said.

State Minister of Population Ida Bagus Oka reiterated that in
anticipation of this prediction, the government was subsidizing
contraceptives for poor families.

Oka, who also chairs the National Family Planning Board
(BKKBN), which organized the seminar, said, "There is a Rp 58.6
billion fund from the state budget and various foreign grants
allocated for this free contraceptive program."

"But you have to remember that we cannot possibly continue
giving free contraceptives forever. We have budget limitations
too," he said.

He also stated that the latest data from BKKBN indicates that
there are more than 27 million participants in family planning
programs, out of over 33 million fertile couples in the country.

"The failure to conduct family planning will lead us to be the
world's sixth largest country by the year 2050," the minister
said.

A representative of the Central Bureau of Statistics told the
seminar that by the end of 2003 the country would have a
population of 217.4 million people.

A better scenario, Maswar said, was if the economic crisis
continued without the riots, and those couples in family planning
programs only declined from 55 percent to 50 percent. Of course,
it would be better still if the economy was a little better, and
family planning participants remained at 55 percent.

Meanwhile a researcher with the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences, Riwanto Tirtosudarmo, spoke on political and population
change. He warned that in the spirit of reform, the government
should bear in mind that "people should no longer be treated as
in the past." Population-related programs which in the past were
target-oriented "should be changed to an approach which meets the
real needs of the public." He did not specifically name the
family planning program, which has been a target of critics
saying there was use of force in some cases in the past. (edt)