Crisis situation may increase the death rate

JAKARTA (JP): Crime, natural disasters, epidemics and starvation brought on by sheer poverty could increase the rate of death in the next five years, a demographer said Wednesday.

This prediction was among the worst of four "scenarios" discussed in a one-day seminar on demographic projections and parameters after the economic crisis.

Aris Ananta of the University of Indonesia's Demography Institute, said the number of people living below the poverty line would decrease "simply because they are wiped out by death".

These deaths would also be caused by "wars", he said, without further elaboration, apparently hinting at the numerous internal conflicts in the country. Maternal mortality, he also said, would rise as abortions would likely increase.

The worst-case scenario of prolonged economic crisis and riots in the next five years could bring down participation in family planning programs from 55 percent in 1998 to 47.5 percent in the year 2003, said Maswar Noerdin, first assistant to the State Minister of Population.

"We have to admit the fact that in the next five years the family planning program will entirely depend on the political and economic situation here," he said.

State Minister of Population Ida Bagus Oka reiterated that in anticipation of this prediction, the government was subsidizing contraceptives for poor families.

Oka, who also chairs the National Family Planning Board (BKKBN), which organized the seminar, said, "There is a Rp 58.6 billion fund from the state budget and various foreign grants allocated for this free contraceptive program."

"But you have to remember that we cannot possibly continue giving free contraceptives forever. We have budget limitations too," he said.

He also stated that the latest data from BKKBN indicates that there are more than 27 million participants in family planning programs, out of over 33 million fertile couples in the country.

"The failure to conduct family planning will lead us to be the world's sixth largest country by the year 2050," the minister said.

A representative of the Central Bureau of Statistics told the seminar that by the end of 2003 the country would have a population of 217.4 million people.

A better scenario, Maswar said, was if the economic crisis continued without the riots, and those couples in family planning programs only declined from 55 percent to 50 percent. Of course, it would be better still if the economy was a little better, and family planning participants remained at 55 percent.

Meanwhile a researcher with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Riwanto Tirtosudarmo, spoke on political and population change. He warned that in the spirit of reform, the government should bear in mind that "people should no longer be treated as in the past." Population-related programs which in the past were target-oriented "should be changed to an approach which meets the real needs of the public." He did not specifically name the family planning program, which has been a target of critics saying there was use of force in some cases in the past. (edt)