Crises don't happen overnight

Every major event on earth will normally be proceeded by symptoms or early warnings. By watching out for symptoms we should be able to predict and prepare for the events, thereby avoiding or minimizing any damage. For example, before the eruption of a volcano, earthquakes, odorous gases and increases in temperature may be encountered. In this way, nature gives opportunity for people and their animals to escape.

A very good example is taken from the drilling of an oil well. As we know, the drilling process is a very expensive and dangerous undertaking so high professional expertise must be applied. If careless or improper procedures are followed, a serious problem will inevitably occur, such a blowout. This would be a disaster and involve loss of the well, destruction of the rig and injuries or death to the personnel. However, oilmen are very professional. They work 24 hours a day.

The drilling operation in the field is headed by a supervisor or "Company Man". He is responsible for the whole operation and will do his best to ensure that the well is drilled quickly, safely and economically. He is a man with a lot of experience and all the drilling crew, technicians, engineers and other personnel on the drilling rig are his helpers.

Reports must be submitted to him at 5 a.m. and 3 p.m. each day but anything unusual must be reported to him immediately so that corrective action can be taken quickly. An "ABS-nice report" (it translates as "just make the boss happy") is not an option. Critical symptoms such increased gas readings or loss of drilling fluid in the wellbore will receive his immediate attention. If necessary he will stop the drilling process while the problem is tackled.

This could be the middle of a cold rainy night, but he will go immediately to the source of the trouble with his flashlight and investigate alongside the driller and superintendent. If fluid losses are not occurring in the wellbore then an alternative answer to the problem must be found -- maybe the mud engineer is dumping fluid without informing other people. any personnel responsible for such careless practice will receive a warning or may be replaced. A worker who has a professional attitude will stay on the job. So during a drilling operation the wellbore is monitored foot by foot and minute by minute.

Now we return to our economic crisis. Supposing an economic crisis is occurring in the country of Anuland or Anunanesia over a long period causing suffering to the people. Prices of food and consumer goods have rocketed. Many companies have collapsed, jobless everywhere. Level of crime increase dramatically. Demonstrations are exploding in towns around the country. Demonstrators are being injured and killed. The question arises: Did the "helpers" of the "Company Man" in the countries of Anuland and Anunanesia not see the symptoms a long time before the economic "blowout" occurred?

Or did they see the symptoms and were afraid to report? So well, there are many economists with international reputations sitting in top universities and research institutes. Did they give a warning to the bureaucrats that the country's economy was showing introductions of a developing crisis? so just like in the drilling of an oil well we should not wait until the economic "blowout" happens. Remedial action should begin when the first symptoms of the crisis occur so as to prevent suffering later.

SUGENG HARTONO

Jakarta