Cradle of intifada nervously awaits Mideast peace

By Timothy Heritage

GAZA (Reuters): Maj. Gen. Abdel-Razek al-Majaydeh smiles as he recounts how a group of Palestinian children throwing stones at Israeli soldiers triggered a security alert on a recent summer's day in Gaza.

Majaydeh, relaxing in his office in the Palestinian-ruled territory bordering Egypt, says the most senior Israeli officers for miles around scrambled to the scene in minutes before the incident fizzled out.

"Can you imagine? There were just 20 kids throwing stones and all the Israeli military chiefs in the area rushed to the scene," the general, a top Palestinian security official, told Reuters in an interview.

"I told them it would have been very simple just to catch the youths. But this shows they (the Israeli forces) are very tense and nervous."

Nerves are indeed on edge as Israel and the Palestinians approach the Sept. 13 deadline they have set for agreeing on a peace deal. Palestinian President Yasser Arafat has also said he could declare an independent state as early as that date.

Both sides say big gaps divide them at peace talks. There have been no signs of any progress since Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak failed to reach a peace agreement after 15 days of talks at last month's Camp David summit.

But the Israelis and Palestinians do agree on some things.

One is that there is a danger of violence, whether or not the two sides reach a peace deal and whether or not Arafat declares a Palestinian state.

Another is that Gaza is one of the likely flashpoints if trouble erupts.

The Gaza Strip, seized by Israel from Egypt in the 1967 Middle East war, is now mostly controlled by the Palestinian Authority and is home to Arafat.

A rectangle about 45 kilometers (28 miles) long and eight km (five miles) wide, Gaza touches Israeli territory to the north and east, Egypt to the south and the Mediterranean to the west.

Entry to Gaza is through a checkpoint manned by both sides. Security is also tight in the region itself, and is watched over by joint Israeli and Palestinians patrols.

Gaza is often described as one of the world's most densely populated places. Many of the more than one million Palestinians live in squalid refugee camps where safe drinking water is scarce and children run around barefoot on dusty streets, sometimes playing next to stinking rubbish tips.

The approximately 6,000 Jews in Gaza live a much different life.

Many have comfortable homes with clean running water and other amenities in heavily-guarded and fenced settlements on or near the most fertile land.

The region is always tense, but the big fear now is that pent- up frustration with the peace process could spill over.

It was in Gaza in December 1987 that Palestinians began their intifada, or uprising, against Israel's occupation of territories seized by the Jewish state in 1967.

The uprising subsided only in 1993, when an interim peace deal was signed between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). By then, more than 1,200 Palestinians and 179 Israelis had been killed.

Some people are asking whether another intifada is possible. Few expect it, but few rule out completely the possibility of some kind of uprising.

"If there is no peace agreement there will be disappointment among Palestinians, and disappointment could lead to violence," Majaydeh said.

Israeli officials also say clashes are possible but hope they can be avoided. "We must be ready for any development that will occur," said Israeli army spokesman Ron Kitrey.

Israeli security officials say they believe the Palestinians are less likely than several years ago to take to the streets because of dissatisfaction with their leaders, but acknowledge that much depends on whether Arafat can control them.

Israeli forces vastly outnumber and outgun the Palestinians but one security official acknowledged the difficulties in winning the propaganda war that would be waged in any uprising pitting "children against Israeli tanks on CNN".

Palestinian officials deny there is a lack of support for the leadership, citing the hero's welcome Arafat received on his return from Camp David after refusing to yield on demands for sovereignty of East Jerusalem and for the rights of refugees.

In a sign of the growing concern that violence might flare, the U.S. State Department this month issued a warning to Americans that there was a heightened danger of "terrorist" attacks in Israel, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

And Israel announced on Aug. 21 that it had in the previous few weeks arrested 23 suspected guerrillas who, it said, had planned to carry out bombing attacks on Israelis and had links to the Saudi-born militant Osama bin Laden.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is that there have been no major clashes in Gaza or elsewhere since the summit collapsed.

This is partly due to the fact that many people believe this is only an interruption to the talks and not an end. Despite the few signs of progress, many people still hope for a deal.

"The Palestinian people have a lot to lose if violence erupts now," said a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official.

Opponents of a peace deal say the Palestinians would also have a lot to lose if they concluded an agreement that involved a compromise on issues such as Jerusalem and refugees.

Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who founded the militant Islamic group Hamas soon after the intifada began, says Arafat should not make concessions on these or other issues.

"We don't seek internal strife. But things could go out of control at any moment," he said in an interview. "If things get out of control the only party that has to fear is Israel."

Hamas has in the past tried to derail peacemaking by launching bomb attacks that have killed scores of Israelis, but Yassin has said coordinated work by the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the United States has hindered its actions.

Someone has painted a portrait of Yassin on the white wall of his house in one of Gaza's many dusty and bumpy streets. Children play quietly underneath it.

What happens in the coming weeks and months could determine whether those children become the next generation of protesters.