Contradictions in Sino-Taiwanese ties (2)

This is the second of two articles on the complex relations between Taiwan and China.

HONG KONG (JP): Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen's remarks once more pose a basic question that underlies this reform process. As long as the nationalist Kuomintang party (KMT), held undisputed control, its policy acknowledging only one China, and that China would eventually be reunified, was also uncontested. But can the policy of one China survive under the myth-destroying conditions of democratic elections?

As Qian gave his warning in Jakarta, he was implicitly saying that communist China, not surprisingly, would never accept a democratic election which resulted in the one China policy being abandoned and Taiwan's independence being declared.

Whether China's warning makes more Taiwanese willing to vote for the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) remains to be seen. The acid test will come in a little over a year when the president, instead of being effectively appointed by the KMT, will also be chosen by one-man, one-vote.

However, the current election is not a simple case of DPP versus KMT, "One China" versus independence. The New Party (NP), formed by a younger right-wing faction which broke away from the KMT, complicates matters by attacking both major parties.

Fiercely in favor of "One China," and eventual reunification with it, the NP attacks the DPP for risking China's wrath. But the NP also attacks the KMT on the grounds that it too is leaning towards independence, under President Lee, the first native-born Taiwanese President.

Thus the NP candidate for Taipei Mayor Jaw Shau-kong has accused President Lee of having a secret timetable to declare Taiwan independent in June 1997 when China is preoccupied with the return of Hong Kong.

The DPP candidate Chen Shui-bien immediately accused Jaw of "speaking for the Chinese communists" and of "creating tension between different ethnic groups in Taiwan and planting a seed of hatred among the people here." A KMT spokesman said the NP's remarks were malicious and irresponsible, while a statement from the presidential palace denounced the allegation as groundless.

The reference to ethnic tension relates to the differences between native Taiwanese and the Chinese from the mainland who migrated to Taiwan along with the KMT. However for those used to seeing Taiwan's frequent parliamentary fisticuffs on television, the election has been quite tame so far.

A few taxi drivers have smashed each other's cabs over political differences, and even evicted passengers whose views were regarded as obnoxious. But large scale violence has been avoided.

The challenge by the NP would probably be considered insignificant - except that on Nov. 20 Jaw managed to get a procession of 50,000 supporters marching through Taipei to back up his views. Everything went off peacefully, even when the procession passed DPP headquarters.

This large turnout, together with one opinion poll showing all three candidates for Taipei Mayor securing around 20 percent approval two weeks before voting, with the other 40 percent undecided, suggest two possible electoral scenarios.

First, the NP could divide the conservative vote in favor of reunification, and of not offending China, with the KMT. This trend might allow the ostensibly radical DPP to capture one or more of the three key posts.

Second, the NP at one extreme and the DPP at the other might together work to give the KMT renewed democratic life. President Lee has shrewdly maneuvered in the crucial political middle ground -- expanding democracy, giving fresh stress to Taiwan's separate identity and yet retaining the commitment to China being reunited one day.

Another incident ten days before voting illustrated both the tremendous complexity of ties between China and Taiwan -- and also suggested that the KMT is more worried about the DPP electoral threat than that posed by the NP.

The episode stemmed from a visit to China by Winston Chang, who, in Western eyes at least, is an illegitimate son of former President Chiang Ching-kuo. Chinese eyes are less censorious, and accept that Chang is also the grandson of the founder of the KMT, Chiang Kai-shek.

Chang, who is the president of a university in Taiwan, suffered a severe stroke while in Beijing. The Chinese gave him the best treatment available but the stroke left Chang in a coma. So the issue arose -- could he be flown directly from China to Taipei?

Another symbol of the unending Chinese "civil war" is that Taiwan bans direct travel of any kind between Taiwan and the mainland. All investors and businessmen have to go to China via Japan or via Hong Kong instead of taking a half hour flight across the Taiwan Straits.

The Taiwan government lifted one rule -- it allowed Winston's twin brother John, who as chairman of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission has cabinet rank, to fly to Beijing to see his brother in hospital. Cabinet rank officials are normally banned from visiting China.

But Taipei declined to take the additional step of lifting the ban on direct travel. So Winston Chang was flown home on Nov. 24 with a brief touchdown in Hong Kong to symbolize that the direct travel ban had been upheld.

For quite a few Taiwanese and many foreigners, the symbolism seem inexplicable, not to mention inhumane. But the indirect flight served the KMT"s pre-election purpose in at least two ways.

It demonstrated that the rules would no longer be bent just because someone was a member of the Chiang family. The indirect flight also served, as do the guns on Quemoy, to stress continued KMT preference for the political separation from "One China" that the DPP espouses.