Contradictions in Sino-Taiwan ties

This is the first of two articles on the complex relations between Taiwan and China.

By Harvey Stockwin

HONG KONG (JP): Many observers feared a grave crisis-in-the- making recently, when Taiwan accidentally shelled the Chinese mainland. Yet Beijing remains adamantly opposed to any move, such as withdrawal of the guns, which ends all risk of such an accident happening again.

After a brief hiatus, Taiwan quickly apologized for the shelling accident and promised compensation for those who were injured. But it is China which occasionally threatens to invade Taiwan.

These are not the only contradictions spanning the 100-mile wide Taiwan Straits. The basic paradox is that the civil war between the Chinese Communists and Nationalists continues even though Taiwan has become the largest single "foreign" investor in the rapidly expanding Chinese economy.

Both sides of the paradox were illustrated in the shelling incident. The guns which fired the shells were on Little Quemoy island, which is a Nationalist-held island lying 2.3 kilometers from the Chinese mainland.

Little Quemoy is close to the larger and better known Quemoy island, known in Chinese as Jinmen. The Chinese Nationalists retained these offshore islands when they fled from the mainland to Taiwan as the Chinese Communists took control in 1949.

Quemoy and Matsu, another Nationalist-held island further north, were hot-spots during the Cold War when, on two occasions, the U.S. dangled the threat of nuclear war if Beijing sought to take back the islands by force.

The then Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev made it clear that he would not entirely help China defend these offshore islands. His reluctance to honor their alliance was an additional cause of the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s.

The Chinese province lying opposite Quemoy and Matsu is Fujian, which is the province with the greatest ethnic and linguistic similarity to Taiwan.

So the shrapnel from the shells -- which slightly injured four persons -- fell on the Chinese province which contains a majority of Taiwanese industrial investments in China. Taiwan is now easily the largest single "foreign" investor in China, followed by Hong Kong.

So it made no sense for Taiwan to be shelling its own investments, nor for China to be complaining too aggressively over the shelling. Both wanted to protect future investors.

Beijing was furious at first, but once Taiwan admitted fault, explained it was an accident and promised compensation, the decibel level of China's complaints decreased markedly.

The boot was on the other foot last April. Taipei did the complaining when a party of 24 Taiwan tourists were killed in mysterious circumstances on Qindao Lake in Zhejiang province.

The boat in which the tourists were cruising was set alight and burned out of control. Taiwan still believes that elements from the Peoples Liberation Army were responsible. China eventually blamed, tried and executed three men -- ostensibly nothing to do with the PLA.

China was very slow to admit fault and apologize. The Taiwanese were absolutely furious when Beijing refused relatives permission to see the bodies before they were cremated. China only became more obliging when the Taiwanese instituted a tourist boycott, with an investment boycott seeming likely to follow.

From a strict security viewpoint, the Nationalist garrisons on the offshore islands do nothing for the protection of Taiwan, since it lies a hundred or more miles away from the offshore islands. The artillery duels between the communists and nationalist guns have long since ceased. This recent incident was the more surprising because there has been no reported firing for over a decade. But the Nationalists continue to garrison Quemoy and Matsu, plus several better islets.

The biting irony is that China would not want the Nationalists to remove the guns on Quemoy and Matsu, even if Taiwan was inclined to do so.

Those garrisons remain a symbol, for both the Nationalists and the Communists, that there is only one China. China has no wish to destroy the symbol even if it proves irritating at times.

But for the increasingly lively opposition in Taiwan, led by the Democratic Progressive Party whose aim is independence, those islands represent an unwelcome commitment.

In the current election campaign, the party even suggested that the islands should be neutralized, or that Nationalists garrisons should be withdrawn.

That is why, at the recent conference of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen was the only politician to actually threaten war.

To be fair, Qian did his best to sound peaceful, as he was bombarded with questions from Taiwanese journalists. "The consistent position of the Chinese government is peaceful unification" Qian said, "so there is no threat of a military nature ... We will not militarily invade Taiwan."

But in the same breath he made it clear that peaceful intent was merely China's preference, but not its policy. "However if Taiwan declares independence, or if external forces invade Taiwan, we believe the military option is still necessary," Qian said.

Inevitably these remarks placed China right in the middle of Taiwan's current election campaign. The election is part of the steady expansion of democracy on Taiwan. For the first time, the positions of governor of Taiwan, plus Mayor of the two main cities Taipei and Kaoshiung, are to be decided on the basis of "one man, one vote". Additionally the two city councils and the provincial assembly (all areas apart from the two cities) will also be elected. Voting takes place in all these contests on Dec. 3.

Previously, the governor and the two mayors were all appointed by the President of the Republic of China, the official title of the Taiwan government. The President was always the leader of the once-authoritarian Kuomintang, the Nationalist party.

Then, first under the former President Chiang Ching-kuo and even more under current President Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan moved closer to being the only Chinese-majority state which is truly democratic.