How was the survey conducted? Did the pollsters ask the same households consistently over a certain period?
I am really skeptical about the numbers and what the numbers really mean? probably nothing. All I know is that my 1,000,000 Rupiah doesn't go along way; my carrefour basket is half full or is it half empty? either way I'm pissed (inflation is eating my moola fast)
Consumers in the country are getting jittery from a possible domino effect from the lately pick-up in inflation to growth and beyond, putting their confidence on the economy at a down again, said a recent survey from the Danareksa Research Institute.
Overall consumer confidence fell further in October to its lowest in the past four months, as concerns of slowing growth clouded the outlook for job creation.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) had for the month lost 0.9 percent to 82.2 points, extending its 1.9 percent drop in September.
Both components of the index -- gauging consumer confidence at present and ahead -- also fell. The Present Situations Index (PSI) dropped by 2.0 percent to 62.5, while the Expectations Index (EI) edged down 0.3 percent to 97.0.
"Unlike in September, when declines in confidence were due to transitory factors such as the seasonal surge in prices due to the Idul Fitri celebrations, October's decline in confidence was mostly driven by concerns over weaker job growth," Danareksa said in the monthly survey, which was conducted across 1,700 respondents in six main regions.
An index above 100 shows confidence in the economy.
"Moreover, rising prices and kerosene fuel-shortages in some parts of the country have also dampened confidence, especially of people living in urban areas."
Danareksa's survey suggests poor urban households have indeed been the most affected, with the index for urban respondents having fallen by 1.5 percent to 82.5, while that for rural respondents had actually gained 0.8 percent to 81.8.
The survey further revealed that with expectations of lower job creation in the upcoming months, consumers had more or less lost their appetite to buy goods during October.
"Consumers fear that with tougher times ahead they will see no appreciable improvement in their incomes," Danareksa said.
"And if salaries are not hiked by more than the rate of inflation in the near future, then purchasing power is unlikely to pick up."
In such a situation, the proportion of consumers planning to buy durable goods over the next six months slipped to 25.4 percent in October, from 26.2 percent the previous month.
This bleaker economic outlook eventually also took a toll on consumer confidence on the government, with the related index dropping by 2.8 percent to 97.3 in October.
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