Confusion in East Timor
Many citizens of East Timor are in a state of confusion. Some are perhaps close to distraction over to question of whether to remain part of the Republic of Indonesia with broad autonomy or make a bid for independence and remain as "an international beggar".
The region is reportedly rich in oil, uranium and other minerals. An independent East Timor would be like a Kuwait with the social democratic principles of the Scandinavian countries. Unfortunately, this picture is nothing but a myth put about by the anti-integrationist Ramos Horta in his efforts to gain support. Even if the mineral deposits in East Timor do exist, it would take time, not to say expertise, to exploit them.
East Timor is a place of natural beauty, however foreign hoteliers will obviously prefer investing in Bali to East Timor. In the end, an independent East Timor would have no choice but to resort to foreign, particularly western, aid. And of course from certain groups in Indonesia. The state of East Timor would become "an international beggar".
During the Cold War, it would have been easy for East Timor to sell itself and lease a small plot of its land to a superpower for use as a military base. Now, rather than East Timor, the United States would prefer Indonesian islands in the proximity of the South China Sea. For all these years, East Timor has only inflicted losses on Indonesia and has never given anything in return. In fact, many East Timorese, including Ramos Horta, have benefited from the East Timor question by "selling the East Timor conflict." I'm not sure if the many East Timorese who live abroad on the sales of the conflict will ever return to the territory of their birth.
Let's assume that East Timor was granted independence and that its economy was be supported by countries such as Norway, Portugal and certain quarters in Indonesia. In light of this, merchants in Indonesia's eastern regions should prepare themselves because they will soon be able to take advantage of the new situation. Yet, it does not mean that Indonesia will give up East Timor. The people of "the East Timorese state" will certainly need daily necessities such as rice, soap, fuel oil and clothing. While these necessities may be supplied by merchants from Indonesia's eastern regions, the needs of the people in the richer classes, such as jewelry, may well be met by Australian traders. This is not much, however. Obviously, these traders must pay for virtually unsubsidized Garuda tickets to Jakarta or Denpasar. Ships managed by PELNI will also scrap their route to Dili immediately.
Certainly, there will be a high demand for school teachers, doctors and midwives in East Timor, because those assigned there now will soon leave. There will also be a high demand for policemen (but not soldiers), civil servants and diplomats, who will be dispatched abroad. So they will need a currency and a banking system, including foreign reserves, to pay these people's salaries. It is very likely that casinos will be opened everywhere. Unfortunately, people will continue to prefer Christmas Island, where casinos are well established. So, who will manage the currency?
All this has brought back to my memory the words of a Catholic nun from Yogyakarta. I met her when Horta and Bishop Belo received the Nobel Prize. "Do not treat the East Timorese that way," she said. What she meant closely resembles what Gus Dur once said: Indonesia can live without East Timor but East Timor cannot live without Indonesia.
HENDRAR PRAMUDYO
Jakarta