Confusion in East Timor

Confusion in East Timor

Many citizens of East Timor are in a state of confusion. Some
are perhaps close to distraction over to question of whether to
remain part of the Republic of Indonesia with broad autonomy or
make a bid for independence and remain as "an international
beggar".

The region is reportedly rich in oil, uranium and other
minerals. An independent East Timor would be like a Kuwait with
the social democratic principles of the Scandinavian countries.
Unfortunately, this picture is nothing but a myth put about by
the anti-integrationist Ramos Horta in his efforts to gain
support. Even if the mineral deposits in East Timor do exist, it
would take time, not to say expertise, to exploit them.

East Timor is a place of natural beauty, however foreign
hoteliers will obviously prefer investing in Bali to East Timor.
In the end, an independent East Timor would have no choice but to
resort to foreign, particularly western, aid. And of course from
certain groups in Indonesia. The state of East Timor would become
"an international beggar".

During the Cold War, it would have been easy for East Timor to
sell itself and lease a small plot of its land to a superpower
for use as a military base. Now, rather than East Timor, the
United States would prefer Indonesian islands in the proximity of
the South China Sea. For all these years, East Timor has only
inflicted losses on Indonesia and has never given anything in
return. In fact, many East Timorese, including Ramos Horta, have
benefited from the East Timor question by "selling the East Timor
conflict." I'm not sure if the many East Timorese who live abroad
on the sales of the conflict will ever return to the territory of
their birth.

Let's assume that East Timor was granted independence and that
its economy was be supported by countries such as Norway,
Portugal and certain quarters in Indonesia. In light of this,
merchants in Indonesia's eastern regions should prepare
themselves because they will soon be able to take advantage of
the new situation. Yet, it does not mean that Indonesia will give
up East Timor. The people of "the East Timorese state" will
certainly need daily necessities such as rice, soap, fuel oil and
clothing. While these necessities may be supplied by merchants
from Indonesia's eastern regions, the needs of the people in the
richer classes, such as jewelry, may well be met by Australian
traders. This is not much, however. Obviously, these traders must
pay for virtually unsubsidized Garuda tickets to Jakarta or
Denpasar. Ships managed by PELNI will also scrap their route to
Dili immediately.

Certainly, there will be a high demand for school teachers,
doctors and midwives in East Timor, because those assigned there
now will soon leave. There will also be a high demand for
policemen (but not soldiers), civil servants and diplomats, who
will be dispatched abroad. So they will need a currency and a
banking system, including foreign reserves, to pay these people's
salaries. It is very likely that casinos will be opened
everywhere. Unfortunately, people will continue to prefer
Christmas Island, where casinos are well established. So, who
will manage the currency?

All this has brought back to my memory the words of a Catholic
nun from Yogyakarta. I met her when Horta and Bishop Belo
received the Nobel Prize. "Do not treat the East Timorese that
way," she said. What she meant closely resembles what Gus Dur
once said: Indonesia can live without East Timor but East Timor
cannot live without Indonesia.

HENDRAR PRAMUDYO

Jakarta