Conflict must be part of poverty reduction strategy

Conflict must be part of poverty reduction strategy

Mohammad Zulfan Tadjoeddin, The Hague, Netherlands

Indonesia will soon have a new government led by the first
directly elected president in its history. Many problems of the
country are waiting to be resolved. Among them, resolving violent
conflicts and combating poverty are still two major issues, apart
from addressing unemployment and corruption.

It seems violent conflict of all kinds is a key feature of
Indonesia today, especially since the onset of the economic
crisis in 1997. Rampant communal violence has torn apart
Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Maluku; a new phase of separatist
violence has developed in Aceh and Papua; while other kinds of
violent conflict have also erupted, although at a lower
intensity, in other parts of the country.

At the same time, poverty reduction has become a national
priority along with the process of economic and social recovery.

The latest National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas) in 2002
estimates that the number of Indonesians living below the poverty
line has declined to 17.6 percent. Though the poverty head count
ratio is approaching pre-crisis levels, a number of points should
be noted.

First, in several poor regions like Gorontalo and East Nusa
Tenggara, more than 30 percent of the population still live in
poverty. Second, the national poverty figure of 17.6 percent does
not include the conflict prone regions, namely Aceh, Papua,
Maluku and North Maluku. This is because the survey could not be
undertaken in those provinces for security reasons. Looking at
the past data, poverty rates in Maluku (including North Maluku)
and Papua in 1999 were extremely high, 46 percent and 55 percent
respectively. The figures were more than twice the national
poverty average at that time.

Given the high incidence of poverty in conflict prone regions,
can we link the effort to reduce poverty and the outbreak of
violent conflict? Should conflict be seriously considered in a
poverty reduction strategy?

There is a growing international literature on the link
between conflict and poverty. Most refer to cases in African
countries, such as Rwanda, The Congo, Somalia, Ethiopia,
Zimbabwe, etc, where chronic poverty is regarded as a direct
result of persistent conflicts and vice-versa. However, it is
still hard to find Indonesian literature on the subject although
the country is facing the problem of conflict and poverty.

Conflict analysis and its prevention should be considered as
an important element in the poverty reduction strategy in
Indonesia, beyond the traditional discussions focussing on how to
identify the poor, how to target them, its fiscal consequences
and so on. However this issue has not been properly addressed in
the current draft of Indonesian Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
(PRSP).

To begin with, the following questions need to be addressed.
Does conflict cause poverty? Does poverty lead to conflict? Is
there a two-way causation between poverty and conflict, leading
to a vicious circle of "conflict -- poverty -- conflict" or
"poverty -- conflict -- poverty"?

Violent conflicts have direct effects on poverty through the
destruction of physical, human, and social capital, resulting in
a disruption of productivity, heightened unemployment, social
displacement and increased physical insecurity. These
developments were basically what one could find in Maluku, for
example.

As can be seen in conflict prone areas in Indonesia,
conflicts have created fresh poverty. A significant number of
people have suddenly become poor. Part of the community directly
affected by violent conflict will automatically fall below the
poverty line, mostly due to the destruction of physical capital,
loss of work due to disrupted economic activity or the loss of
income-earning family members.

At the same time, poverty has also generated vulnerability.
For example, most Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) quickly
fall below the poverty line. According to the data compiled by
the World Food Program at the end of 2002, there were 1.1 million
IDPs from conflict prone regions, namely Aceh, Sambas, Sampit,
Poso, Maluku, North Maluku, Papua and East Timor. They left their
jobs and economic assets, and their social and cultural life was
disrupted. They moved to new areas without any certainty about
their future. Moreover, the IDPs also affect local inhabitants
that live near their settlements as their presence often causes
economic and social disharmony.

On the other hand, poverty might also cause conflict. However,
this direction of causality is not as obvious as the other way
round. Although poverty might not be the root cause of major
conflicts or rebellions in Indonesia, poverty can stimulate
crimes that can escalate into a serious social problem.

Lampung might be the best example for this case. Although this
province is not widely considered a conflict-prone region like
Aceh, Papua or Maluku, there is a significant level of violent
conflict in Lampung, mainly in the form of spontaneous violence
between villages, armed robbery and vigilantism.

The social division between the native and migrant
populations is often associated with groups involved in violent
conflicts. A recent World Bank study on violence in Lampung, the
poorest province in Sumatra, notes that poverty -- in relative,
as well as, in absolute terms -- is an important underlying
factor behind the violent conflicts in the region.

Conflict is a central element that must be recognized in
developing a poverty reduction strategy. Conflict is a barrier to
poverty eradication. Conflict creates a situation where any kind
of development interventions like social safety nets, rebuilding
infrastructure and providing public services such as basic health
and education would be less successful and less effective.
Furthermore, conflict retards economic growth -- as many studies
also suggest -- while growth is essential for poverty reduction.

Parties committed to development and poverty reduction --
especially the government bodies, NGOs as well as donor agencies
-- need to start addressing the barriers to their work. Dealing
with conflict is essential to development as conflict must be
seen in a broader context of development, rather than confining
the issue within the security and political domain. The task is
really how to put the variable of conflict with all of its
dynamics in a new, broader social development policy for
Indonesia.

The writer is a graduate student at the Institute of Social
Studies (ISS), The Hague, Netherlands. He can be reached at
ecd0421@iss.nl.