Confidence is Habibie's challenges

Confidence is Habibie's challenges

By Benny Subianto

JAKARTA (JP): Two days before announcing his resignation on
May 21, Soeharto asked a group of nine Islamic leaders whether
appointing Habibie, his vice president cum golden boy, as
president would guarantee an end to the troubles. None of the
nine Islamic leaders wanted Habibie to be President.

Habibie's subsequent appointment has been widely questioned by
many parties, including some of his supporters. Constitutional
law experts have debated the legality of his appointment because
the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) decree which appointed
Soeharto president has not yet been revoked. Politicians and
political observers have also voiced their doubts about the
legitimacy of Habibie's presidency.

These questions have arisen firstly because of doubts over
Habibie's power base and his commitment to political reform and
democratization. There are also grave doubts over his ability to
deal with the monetary crisis and recultivate confidence in the
Indonesian economy. Finally, Habibie himself has been tarnished
by the corruption, collusion, and nepotism of the old regime and
must at some time in the future answer these accusations.

Doubts over Habibie's ability to deal with the monetary crisis
stem from his reputation as a free-spending eccentric who has a
penchant for projects of an excessively grand nature. This, and
his famous zig-zag theory to explain the rate of inflation, has
severely damaged his credibility in financial and economic
circles around the world.

Genuine pro-reform politicians and activists have not endorsed
Habibie's administration. This stance is quite understandable
because Habibie is inseparable from Soeharto's regime and its now
notorious corruption, collusion, and nepotism.

Decisions taken by members of Habibie's family to resign from
positions of power and influence are strong confirmation of
Habibie's indulgence in the bad practices of the old regime. Both
foreign and local media have revealed that immediate and distance
relatives of Habibie have benefited considerably from corrupt,
collusive and nepotistic practices.

For example, it is clear that development projects on Batam
island are firmly controlled by the Habibie clan. His brother,
J.E. "Fanny" Habibie replaced him as head of the Batam Industrial
Development Authority. His son, Thareq, and an aunt have a US$100
million joint venture project to build a resort area on the
island, and his brother Timmy, who heads the Timsco conglomerate,
is planning to construct a $1 billion dollar container terminal.

Furthermore, Habibie's younger sister, Sri Rejeki, chairs a
foundation that runs the island's hospital and schools. Her
husband is the former CEO of Batam Island Development Authority
and still holds exclusive rights to manage the island's ports.

Habibie dismissed these accusations in an interview with The
New York Times, saying that his family's wealth was due to their
high education and talent. It is true that his family are blessed
in both of these respects, but Habibie has shown himself to be
naive by denying that he abused his position of power to advance
the business interests of his family.

Habibie hopes to stay in power until the end of next year and
it is likely that he is buying time to prepare himself to stand
in the next presidential election, although last week he said he
would not be a presidential candidate in the election.

These circumstances have forced Emil Salim, a former cabinet
member and respected pro-reform figure, to resign from the Group
of Six, a grouping which is set to become a loyal opposition to
the new President.

Emil believes that an election should be held immediately and
that Habibie should not be allowed to buy time for himself.
Furthermore, he argues that Habibie's occupation of the country's
highest office will create market distrust, obstruct the flow of
capital back into the country and delay economic recovery.

Habibie's uneasy relations with the Armed Forces (ABRI) are
well-known. The simmering animosity between the President and
ABRI dates from when he controlled the purchase of weapons,
ships, and jet fighters. Soeharto's decision to hand over control
of some key military-owned industries to Habibie did little to
improve this situation.

Habibie's only power base is the Association of Indonesian
Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI). The association played a strategic
role in securing Habibie's nomination as vice president, but
reports of a rift between him and ICMI emerged ten days before he
took over the presidency. Habibie naively stated on May 9 that
the ICMI call for a cabinet reshuffle and an extraordinary
session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) amounted to
harassment of the Assembly.

ICMI is a complex and heterogeneous organization established
in 1990 under the auspices of the Soeharto regime. Habibie was
assigned to lead and control the newly born Islamic intellectual
organization. The association benefited from Habibie's close ties
to Soeharto but adopted a mildly critical stance toward the New
Order regime. Habibie successfully built a political power base
inside ICMI and secured the sympathies of a number of other
Islamic groups in the process because the association is made up
of a number of different groupings, including intellectuals,
scholars, academics, professionals, government bureaucrats,
officials, and political activists.

Although this diverse grouping has no obvious political
constituents, the association has always maintained that it
represents marginalized and underprivileged Moslems, who happen
to be the majority of Indonesians.

ICMI has served as a vehicle for a number of different types
of political careerists who saw it as an effective means through
which to advance their interests under Soeharto's repressive
regime.

Some ICMI figures apparently actively assisted Habibie during
the transfer of power, the formation of his cabinet, and in
implementing policy thereafter.

Twelve of the thirty six cabinet members have belonged to ICMI
at some time in their careers, so it not surprising that
political observers have labeled it an ICMI cabinet.

It is nevertheless too much too presume that Islamic politics
will secure Habibie's political future. One ICMI member who
belongs to Habibie's inner-circle admits that he is worried about
the possibility of social unrest, or even revolution, as a result
of a further deterioration in economic conditions over the next
few months.

In spite of Habibie's unpromising political future, some ICMI
figures still hope to influence the design of a blueprint for
Indonesian politics under Habibie. It seems that the group of
Catholic intellectuals who under the patronage of the late Gen.
Ali Moertopo assisted Soeharto design a political blueprint in
the late 1960s has become something of a model for some ICMI
figures.

But those in Habibie's inner circle who support his plan to
stay in power until late 1999 must face a number of challenges.

The association has no basis on which to claim it is pro-
reform. Its main objective, to varying degrees, is to encourage
the development of Islamic society, not democratization.

Furthermore, the new government has yet to introduce any
credible policies or take any convincing action to restore public
and international confidence in Indonesian politics and the
economy.

Habibie's cabinet must also prove that it can provide a
sufficient supply of affordable staple food, stabilize social and
political conditions, and attract back foreign investment and
Chinese-Indonesians who were forced to flee last months riots.

Finally, Habibie must deal with challenges to his regime, but
unlike Soeharto, who had the full support of Western countries
during the Cold War, he will face close scrutiny of his every
move from the global community.

The writer is an observer of political affairs based in
Jakarta.

Window A: ICMI has served as a vehicle for a number of different
types of political careerists who saw it as an effective means
through which to advance their interests under Soeharto's
repressive regime.

Window B: In spite of Habibie's unpromising political future,
some ICMI figures still hope to influence the design of a
blueprint for Indonesian politics under Habibie.