Concern still remains widespread over Cambodia

PHNOM PENH (JP): The situation appears to have returned to normal in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, as the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) forces of Premier Hun Sen apparently have taken control of most parts of the country.

But concern remains widespread as indicated by the fact that international flights to and from Phnom Penh (except to Vietnam) remain scarce. Until the end of this month, all flights from Phnom Penh to Bangkok are fully booked by foreigners and Cambodians who want to leave the country, according to a Royal Air Cambodge official in Bangkok.

Photographs published here this week have revealed that the battle in Phnom Penh on July 4 and July 5 was fierce and the damage severe. Heavy damage at Ponchentong Airport and many parts of the capital could still not be estimated.

But for some of the capital's inhabitants, the war has created new economic opportunities. The Khmer Rouge -- along with Ranariddh's FUNCINPEC forces -- have apparently played a "Robin Hood war" against Hun Sen's CPP by looting a garment factory and giving away the booty. As a result, 10 days after the battle, one could witness a new garment market stretching more than three kilometers along the street connecting the airport and the capital. Sad though the fighting was, one taxi driver said "while some people can benefit from it, the popularity of the Khmer Rouge grows".

Meanwhile, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has started a new offensive. In a meeting held last week but which was only revealed Monday, Hun Sen asked ASEAN ambassadors why the ASEAN countries (with some exceptions) in 1970 supported and accepted the Lon Nol regime, which "suspended the constitution, imposed martial law and changed the monarchy into a republic. And what I did was nothing but suppress the anarchy forces".

Hun Sen, of course, did more than just that. But he has been able to create and carefully maintain some legitimacy by capitalizing on the political and diplomatic momentum that was on his side. There were several factors over the past weekend that benefited his position vis-a-vis in the world community after he ousted the first co-prime minister, Norodom Ranariddh.

First, King Sihanouk, as Kyodo news agency reported, had conspicuously refrained from using the word "coup d'etat", which his son, Ranariddh, accused Hun Sen of. In a carefully worded statement urging the two warring sides to start negotiations, the king even referred to Hun Sen as "the victorious premier".

Sihanouk's attitude toward his former adversary, Hun Sen, is now being compared to his strong, but unofficial, alliance with the Khmer Rouge during the early 1990s peace process. At that time, Sihanouk was considered self-confident, despite the fact the Khmer Rouge had killed many of his siblings. A unifying symbol to his nation, King Sihanouk remains a real political authority and a key player who at times could surprise his friends and enemies.

Coupled with the moderate statement issued by the UN Security Council -- thanks, reportedly, to the stand taken by China and Japan -- last week, Sihanouk's voice means a significant diplomatic advantage for Hun Sen. This may compensate some successes achieved by his rival, Ranariddh, in mobilizing U.S. and ASEAN support. An additional, but not unimportant new factor emerged when the Australian ambassador to Phnom Penh Tony Kevin, in a leaked confidential cable suggested to his government in Canberra "not to cry for Ranariddh" and give support instead to Hun Sen.

If King Sihanouk accepts the ousting of his son Ranariddh, Hun Sen's strength on the home front will grow even more as FUNCINPEC's new leaders are preparing to return to the power sharing formula by nominating a popular former resistance leader, Toan Chay, to succeed Ranariddh as first co-prime minister.

The question now is if Ranariddh will do what he promised, i.e. organize an armed resistance movement. If he does, it may complicate the situation as it might provoke Cambodia's two neighbors, which were classic adversaries, Thailand and Vietnam. This may disrupt the ASEAN peace initiative.

But doubts are growing as to the ability and strength of Ranariddh and his FUNCINPEC loyalists to create such a movement without support from the Khmer Rouge. It was this, after all, which provoked Hun Sen to get rid of Ranariddh, as he recently conceded to the independent weekly Phnom Penh Post. Any resistance force must control Angkor Vat, another powerful national symbol, situated in Siem Reap, the province which recently fell to Hun Sen's CPP forces.

So it is now left to the U.S. and ASEAN to coordinate their peace efforts with the moderate, seemingly more realistic and neutral approaches developed individually by Japan, China, the UN Security Council -- and, though somewhat late, by the European Union -- and of course with King Sihanouk's help.

Whoever will lead Cambodia in the future, it is ironic that similar Cambodian crises which helped ASEAN grow solidly in the 1970s may now have become a potential threat to the stability of the region. The Asia Regional Forum meeting to be held on July 27 should prevent this from happening.

Aboeprijadi Santoso is a freelance journalist based in Europe.