Coalition may lead RI after general election

Indonesia is grappling for the best political format in the wake of last week's political turmoil. Arbi Sanit, a political scientist at the University of Indonesia, forecasts the trends.

Question: Do you think President B.J. Habibie will receive support to call for an early general election?

Arbi: The proreform movement is divided into two camps, one supporting an election organized by Habibie, and the other wanting a transitional government to coordinate the election. The problem does not rest on the expertise and professionalism of the organizers, but on their legitimacy and popularity.

Because Habibie is not popular, people have rejected the argument that organizing a general election involves arduous and lengthy preparations.

I propose that Habibie and the proreform movement hold a national dialog to establish a credible transitional government which will organize a fair and just general election.

Q: How do Indonesians come together as new political parties?

A: They will group into new political parties on various bases -- ideology, religion, profession etc. Some plan to set up a labor party, an Islamic party and a democratic party.

Q: Which group will emerge as the winner?

A: It's hard to predict. A coalition of parties will probably lead the country and a strong national figure may lead the establishment of a federation of parties, something like the United Malay National Organization (UMNO) in Malaysia.

There is no guarantee that an Islamic party will win.

When Amien Rais (chairman of the Moslem organization Muhammadiyah) got support from the Indonesian Committee for World Moslem Solidarity (KISDI) after the transfer of power from Soeharto to Habibie, opposition movement against him increased. That means that among Moslems, there are parties who do not tolerate narrow-mindedness in political views.

However, Amien has declared that he will not lead any political party because he wants to remain a public leader and does not want to leave Muhammadiyah.

Q: So, the winner of a general election will automatically lead the country?

A: I think we'd better change our way of electing the president. Our current system has led to the manipulation of people's sovereignty. This sovereignty is manipulated by political parties at elections, by the House of Representatives and its factions in the processes of making laws, and by the People's Consultative Assembly during the election of a president and vice president.

To reduce such manipulations, the reform programs should allow people to directly elect a president and vice president.

Q: How do you see the role of the Armed Forces (ABRI)?

A: ABRI Chief of Sociopolitical Affairs Lt. Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, said the military will no longer play any political position. So, the political laws should clearly define the political rights of ABRI members.

If Yudhoyono's statement is agreed upon, ABRI will base its activities on professionalism, and the civil government, as a consequence, must provide an adequate budget for its operations.

Q: Do you think the people will accept Habibie if he runs for president in the next election?

A: He is now building his popularity by demonstrating his openness and flexibility to accept proposals from various parties. If he succeeds in leading the democratization of the country, he will be acceptable to compete for the next presidency. Otherwise, he will have to retire.

Q: Do you see social or political disturbances due to the sudden spurt of political freedom?

A: Too much clamoring for freedom could lead to social conflicts due to misunderstanding.

I believe conflicts can be avoided, considering that Indonesia has experience in dealing with liberal democracy 40 years ago. Our experience in managing mass organizations and other non- governmental organizations could contain us from getting involved in severe social conflicts.

Q: How will the world respond to changes in Indonesia?

A: The international community will be happy because the political system that we are planning to adopt has been implemented in several democratic countries and universally accepted. Financial institutions and investors are likely to feel confident about providing loans for Indonesia and investing here.

Businesses with companies in Indonesia are more confident now because they are on a level playing field with competitors. Those doing business in collusion with family members of the former power holder are facing difficulties. (riz)