Coalition govt probable, but who would lead the pack?
By Sugianto Tandra
JAKARTA (JP): For more than three decades the only suspense about general elections was the margin of victory for the ruling Golkar. But today's sudden leveling of the political playing field makes the prospect of a coalition government almost inevitable after the June 7 general election.
Minister of Home Affairs Syarwan Hamid has acknowledged that at least 15 political parties have viable chances.
Learning from the historical example set by the 1955 multiparty election, political expert Andi A. Mallarangeng of Ujungpandang-based Hassanuddin University believed a majority party winner was a thing of the past.
Regardless of the number of seats it obtains, each party will be required to coalesce with others to form at least a 51-percent majority, the minimum percentage required to elect a president and vice president.
The 1945 Constitution's Article 6 (2) states: "The president and vice president are elected by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) through a majority vote."
The MPR, proposed to consist of 700 members in currently debated political bills, would comprise at least 550 members of the House of Representatives (DPR), 81 regional representatives and 69 representatives from societal groups.
Questions hang over how a coalition would come into being.
Political experts are divided on whether new rulings are needed to ensure an effective coalition.
Muhammad A.S. Hikam of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) believed a ruling was necessary to determine the coalition's establishment.
In contrast, J. Kristiadi of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said there was no absolute need for a decree because coalitions developed from circumstances.
"It (coalition) could happen naturally," he said.
Andi, who is also a member of the government's expert team that drafted the political bills on elections, political parties and the status of the DPR/MPR, sided with Kristiadi.
"No, you can't regulate a coalition... after the general election, parties will make coalitions on their own."
Anchor party
Andi said an effective coalition government needed an "anchor" party strong enough to balance the disparate members.
Otherwise, he said, "public policies would not be coherent enough.
"You always need an anchor party to bring other (coalition) parties in line."
In Malaysia, there is the United Malays National Organization, and Germany has the Social Democrats, he said.
Indonesia's problem is the lack of a clear leader of the pack, said the U.S.-educated expert whose doctoral dissertation was on elections.
Andi named the National Mandate Party (PAN), People's Awakening Party (PKB), PDI Perjuangan, Crescent Star Party (PBB) and Golkar among the leading contenders.
Combinations could be many for the parties to form a majority of 51 percent needed for the coalition to pick its president, he said.
Two parties would make the ideal coalition number, but it could stretch to comprise three, which was the case in 1955.
One party could win at the most 30 percent, he predicted.
In 1955, the Indonesian Nationalist Party gained 22.3 percent of the vote, Masyumi had 20.9 percent and Nahdlatul Ulama garnered 18.4 percent.
Andi mulled hypothetical June 7 poll results giving PDI Perjuangan 28 percent, PKB 15 percent and PAN 25 percent.
"Would Amien Rais (PAN chairman) want to be the second man after Megawati Soekarnoputri (PDI Perjuangan) if it joined with PKB and PDI Perjuangan?" Andi asked.
"Would Amien be more likely to coalesce with Crescent Star and Golkar if the latter coalition could make him the first man?"
"There will be several combinations (of parties) of coalitions, it will all depend on the poll result... so there will be a coalition government and there will be an opposition coalition. There'll be competition to form a government."
ABRI card
Also with room to maneuver is the Armed Forces (ABRI) which, if it secures its 55 nonelected House seats, would occupy 10 percent of the proposed 550-seat legislature.
Andi characterized ABRI's recent pledge of neutrality and to no longer back Golkar as a "smart move".
"It's smart enough not to put all its eggs in one basket... it can play in any direction."
Andi quipped that ABRI Commander Gen. Wiranto would be willing to accept invitations to attend party campaigns stops, including those with a checkered history with ABRI.
ABRI's declared neutrality would benefit civil society, Andi said. One of the most important preconditions for a free and fair election, besides a neutral bureaucracy, is a military nonintervention policy, he added.
"So, it's good for ABRI, and it's good for us too."